Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s poor export outlook to prompt policy stimulus Taiwan’s export-oriented economy is struggling amid the global slowdown. We expect the global backdrop to remain difficult, while local inflation should stay among the lowest in Asia. Accordingly, we... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India takes hawkish tone While today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was expected, the accompanying statement is a bit more newsworthy. It makes gloomy reading. The central bank cut its growth forecast, increased... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What will be the effect of India’s drought? India is less vulnerable to a failed monsoon than it was a decade ago. But, if it persists, this year’s disappointing rainfall may still have a significant negative impact on output, inflation and the... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s weak growth to prompt more policy loosening Today’s GDP data from Korea show that the economy grew at a sub-trend pace in the second quarter. Given that tackling inflation is no longer policymakers’ top priority, more stimulus measures are... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cut in the Philippines, more loosening likely by year-end The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) today cut its policy rate by 25bp to 3.75%. With inflationary pressures set to remain low and global demand likely to disappoint this year, we expect further policy... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation eases slightly, further rate cuts on horizon There has been no let-up in the bad news from India. Economic activity remained very weak in the second quarter of the year while inflation is still above 7%. This combination is set to persist in the... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How would Asian bonds perform if risk aversion increased? Asian sovereign bonds have performed well in the years since the 2008-09 global crisis, offering investors reasonable yields without excessive risk. But some may still face sell-offs if global... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore set for sub-trend growth Today’s GDP data show that Singapore's economy contracted in Q2, as manufacturers struggled. The figures back up our view that this will be a lacklustre year for the Singapore economy, and we retain... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea cuts rates, further cuts likely soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate to 3% today. It was a surprise that the move came at this meeting, but we have long held the view that rates would need to be cut this year to support the... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia keep rates on hold, no change likely soon Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate unchanged at a record low of 5.75%. Although inflation is likely to rise sharply in the second half of the year, with global demand set to remain... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia keeps rates on hold, but cuts likely soon Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 3% today. This came as no surprise. Resilient domestic demand is for now compensating for an export slowdown. Nevertheless, we still expect... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates on hold, but more policy loosening to come The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 3.5% today, but the RBA's loosening cycle is still not over. Weakening external demand and recent falls in commodity prices will slow the... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Latest PMIs suggest Asian manufacturers are struggling The June PMIs for Asia were disappointing. With global growth set to remain weak and the situation in the euro-zone likely to worsen, we expect conditions in Asia’s manufacturing sector to remain... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Economic growth to remain weak in Vietnam Economic growth in Vietnam in the second quarter of this year remained weak. Easing inflation and looser monetary policy will help, but growth will be held back by ongoing problems in the banking... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Are lower oil prices a blessing for Asia? The recent collapse in oil prices will help most Asian economies, with oil-intensive Thailand and India benefiting the most. The trouble though is that oil prices are falling because the global... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What’s gone wrong in India? India’s economic troubles are mostly self-inflicted and result from policy paralysis and opposition to reforms. That is unlikely to change until the 2014 general elections at the earliest 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
