Asia Economics Update Australia finished cutting rates The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its policy rate by 25bp to 3.25% today. We think this will mark the end of its loosening cycle, with rates set to remain on hold until late 2013. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing recovery still some way off The September PMIs signal that manufacturing remains weak in Asia. We think that global growth will continue to struggle over the coming year or so and that, against this backdrop, manufacturing... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's latest fiscal plan likely to be only partly adopted If implemented, the recommendations of the Kelkar Commission would put India’s public finances on a far more stable footing. However, the government is unlikely to be able to adopt them in full. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's external deficit remains a concern India‘s current account deficit fell in the second quarter of the year, but only slightly. The deficit remains high and India is still dependent on fragile portfolio investment. In these circumstances... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak Q3 growth in Vietnam, improvement unlikely soon Vietnam looks on course to report its weakest pace of full-year growth in over a decade after figures released today showed the economy is continuing to struggle. Problems in the banking sector, which... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for subdued growth Today’s GDP data show that New Zealand’s economy lost momentum in Q2, as was expected after a strong start to the year. We expect growth to settle at close to its trend rate over the coming quarters... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian government bites the bullet on reforms Friday’s decision to liberalise foreign investment goes some way to dispel the impression of policy paralysis in Delhi. However, implementation of these reforms will be slow, and further measures are... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Jump in Indian inflation pushes back rate cuts Today’s announcement that inflation rose to 7.6% in August eliminates any residual chance that India’s central bank will cut rates on Monday. Indeed, we now expect monetary policy to remain on hold... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Still waiting for budget reforms in India The newly appointed Finance Minister has promised to get the public finances onto a more stable footing. But he has been slow to act and in the mean time the deficit has continued to widen. 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea likely to cut again The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly held its policy rate at 3% today. Nevertheless, we still believe that global growth will continue to disappoint and that more policy stimulus will be needed to... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s cash rate still likely to be cut The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.5% today, as was widely anticipated. Most analysts expect the Bank to embark on significant policy tightening next year. In contrast... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is inflation about to reach a turning point? Headline inflation rates across emerging Asia, which had been trending lower this year, look set to pick up in coming months. Nonetheless, inflation in the region is unlikely to rise sharply and... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia on hold this year, but rate cut likely in 2013 Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold today at 3%, as was widely expected. The economy has shaken off the global slowdown better than almost any in Asia, meaning there is little... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand still likely to loosen monetary policy The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as was widely expected. Healthy domestic demand is cushioning the blow from soft exports, but we think persistent global weakness will... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian economy will cool further Australia’s economy slowed to close to its trend rate in the second quarter, after an unsustainable surge in mining investment drove strong growth in Q1. Although growth is likely to weaken again in... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Regional manufacturing set for prolonged weakness The August PMIs showed that Asia’s manufacturers are continuing to struggle. With global demand set to remain weak, we see little prospect of a strong recovery. However, policy loosening should... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
