Asia Economics Update Fall in inflation keeps BoK rate cut in play Further falls in inflation and the weakness of the most recent activity data support our view that the Bank of Korea (BoK) will shift to loosening monetary policy sooner than when others expect. 4th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (June.) Manufacturing PMIs declined across most of Emerging Asia and the underlying data point to further weakness ahead. Falling new orders and elevated inventory levels are likely to continue to weigh on... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: Latest data point to further interest rate cuts Vietnam’s export-driven economy improved slightly in Q2 but growth was still weak by historical standards. With the external environment likely to remain unfavourable in the second half of the year... 29th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates as IMF deal nears Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised its policy rate by a further 100bps (to 22%) at a unscheduled monetary policy meeting. We think interest rates will need to remain elevated over the coming... 26th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: stage set for rate cut in September Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today kept its main policy rate unchanged (at 1.875%), but with the economy struggling and inflation set to fall further, we expect it to start cutting rates in September. 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Pause not an end to monetary tightening Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) left its main policy rate unchanged today at 21%, but we think this represents a pause rather than an end to the SBP’s tightening cycle. With inflation well above target... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Won weakness likely to continue this year Dismal economic growth has established the Korean won as one of the worst-performing emerging market (EM) currencies against the dollar this year. We expect Korea’s bleak growth prospects and... 8th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: surprise rate cut, further easing to be gradual Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) cut interest rates in a surprise move today but we think further monetary loosening will be gradual as concerns about the external position are likely to persist in the... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: Further tightening unlikely The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its policy rate by 25bps, to 2.0%, today but given the relatively benign outlook for inflation we think this marks the end of the tightening cycle. 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Hawkish BoK, but early cuts still possible The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (3.5%) for a third consecutive meeting, and pushed back against the possibility of early interest rate cuts. However, with inflation falling back... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore set to struggle in 2023 Singapore’s economy is being hit hard by multi-decade high interest rates and elevated inflation. And with external demand set to weaken, we expect growth to be much weaker than consensus projections. 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: an end to the tightening cycle The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left interest rates unchanged (at 6.25%) but stated it was ready to resume its tightening cycle later in the year. However, with inflation falling back... 18th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How big are the risks from Korea’s property downturn? A sharp rise in Korean interest rates over the past 18 months is leading to a steep downturn in the property market. Encouragingly, the banking sector looks well placed to cope, but the broader... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Five key questions (and answers) on the Thai election Thailand’s general election has delivered a massive victory for the main opposition parties, but this may not be enough to allow them to form the next government. This Update answers five key... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump threatened a 100% import tariff on the BRICS countries unless they pledge not to create their own currency. In this note from 2023, we outlined the... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
