Asia Economics Update Policy to remain tight as Pakistan eyes IMF deal Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) raised its policy rate by 300bps (to 20.0%) today, and signalled monetary policy would remain tight as policymakers look to secure a loan deal with the IMF and tackle... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: cuts coming sooner than consensus expects The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (3.5%), but appeared to leave open the door to further hikes later in the year. However, with the economy struggling badly and inflationary... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: demographic drag worsening Figures released today highlight the dreadful demographic outlook facing Korea, with the population (excluding migrants) falling for a third year in a row. Poor demographics are the key reason why we... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: tightening cycle not over yet The central bank of the Philippines today raised its main policy rate by a further 50bps (to 6.00%) and increased its inflation forecast for this year significantly. We are revising our interest rate... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia: No more rate hikes this year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its main policy rate unchanged today (at 5.75%), and signalled that further rate increases this year were unlikely. This supports our view that the tightening cycle has now... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore tightens fiscal policy despite economic slowdown While Singapore’s government has framed today’s budget as being designed to help poorer households cope with a rise in the cost of living, the main macro impact is a tightening of fiscal policy at a... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Answers to your questions on the outlook for Em Asia We held a Drop-In today to discuss the big economic and financial market development across Emerging Asia. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn’t... 26th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: tightening cycle not over yet The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by a further 25bps (to 1.50%), and hinted that more rate hikes were likely in the near term amid worries about rising underlying price pressures. We... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: Rates likely to stay unchanged in 2023 Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) kept interest rates unchanged today, and we expect it to leave rates on hold for the rest of the year as it aims to strike a fine balance between supporting a... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: further tightening on the cards Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) raised its policy rate today by a further 100bps (to 17.0%), and we expect more tightening over the coming months amid concerns about high inflation and the worsening... 23rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Tightening cycle over Bank Indonesia (BI) today raised interest rates by a further 25bps (to 5.75%) but also appeared to signal there would be no further rate increases this year. We are changing our forecast in response... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: Rates on hold, tightening cycle likely over Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) unexpectedly left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.75%), but appeared to leave open the possibility of further rate hikes later in the year. However, with... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: tightening cycle over, rate cuts later this year The Bank of Korea today raised interest rates by a further 25bps (to 3.50%) and relatively dovish comments by Governor Rhee support our view that the tightening cycle is now over. With growth set to... 13th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does China’s end of zero-COVID mean for EMs? China’s abandonment of its zero-COVID policy could lead to supply chain disruption in other EMs, particularly other parts of Asia and Mexico, though we’re not too concerned yet. And outbound Chinese... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia: end of tightening creeping closer Bank Indonesia today raised interest rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, but slowed the pace of tightening with a 25bp hike (to 5.50%). With inflation still well above target, the central bank has... 22nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
