Asia Economics Update India set to take a more cautious approach to rate cuts Today's policy rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to be the last for several months. We think the RBI will pause to assess the impact of the 75bp of rate cuts seen so far this year... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update April PMIs point toward soft recovery The May PMIs for emerging Asia suggest the manufacturing recovery is still struggling for momentum. Importantly, new export orders faltered this month. Loose monetary policy will only partly... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong rebound in Taiwan growth unlikely Today’s GDP data for Taiwan shows that economic growth slowed considerably in the first quarter. The economy is unlikely to pick up strongly in the coming months, and with inflation set to remain low... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Capital inflows a worry in the Philippines Worries over capital inflows are a major concern for the central bank in the Philippines (BSP), which has been stepping up efforts to deter “hot money”. Although the BSP left its key overnight rate on... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's export recovery is unlikely to be sustained GDP data published earlier today showed that Korea's economy picked up in Q1 on the back of robust export growth. However, the export recovery is unlikely to be sustained. With inflation set to remain... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Drop in inflation does not clear the way for a policy rate cut Last month’s drop in India’s wholesale price inflation will have come as a relief to policymakers who have been trying, with limited success, to lower inflation over the last three years. Market... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's industrial recovery fails to convince Today’s industrial production data were better than expected, confirming that India’s industry is picking up. But the data also highlight the growing imperative for a faster pace of approvals of... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesian rates to stay on hold despite inflation risks Although Bank Indonesia kept interest rates on hold today, there is a growing risk that rising headline inflation will cause the central bank to hike rates before the end of the year. However... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Another rate cut in Vietnam, further loosening likely The central bank in Vietnam today announced the seventh reduction in interest rates in just over a year. The move comes in response to very weak growth and subdued price pressures. With the economy... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand near-term outlook marred by drought New Zealand’s economy grew faster than expected in Q4. Reconstruction spending is finally ramping up, but growth will be held back by a drought that has hit North Island. 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s central bank becoming hamstrung by macro risks The Reserve Bank of India stuck to the script and eased monetary policy today. Looking ahead, the market consensus is for another 25bp cut before year-end. However, we expect a long policy hold. While... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Uptick in Indian inflation unlikely to impede rate cut Higher-than-expected wholesale price inflation in India has raised some doubts about whether policy easing is imminent. However, a closer look at today’s data shows that core inflation has dropped to... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's industrial recovery remains fragile, rate cut likely Better-than-expected industrial production data have provided some cause for market cheer in India. However, a close look at the data underlines how fragile the recovery remains. We continue to expect... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia under little pressure to hike rates Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) held its overnight rate at 3.0% at its meeting today, as was widely expected. Despite a pick-up in GDP growth, there is little pressure on BNM to hike rates in 2013. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's economy is running short of drivers Australia’s economy retained good momentum in Q4, despite a downturn in private investment. The outlook for the next two years hinges on the strength of non-mining sectors as the mining boom cools. We... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update February PMIs show continued weakness The February PMIs for emerging Asia were weak, with little sign of upward momentum across the region. Despite policy easing at home, the uncertain outlook for the developed world means Asia’s... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
