Asia Economics Update India’s liquidity measures push policy rate cuts off the table The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) efforts to tighten liquidity have given a bounce to the rupee today. But greater currency stability, even if sustained, will come at the cost of a further economic... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's rising inflation makes near-term rate cut even less likely Today’s slight increase in India's wholesale price inflation will not have greatly alarmed policymakers, but the increase in consumer price inflation is a bigger worry. The chances of the Reserve Bank... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s rice subsidy sustainable Thailand’s government can afford to maintain its rice subsidy scheme indefinitely, as long as GDP growth holds up and rice prices do not collapse. However, doing so would put at risk the goal of... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to wait until 2014 before hiking rates Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. We think rates will remain on hold until early 2014, when we have pencilled in a hike. 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further aggressive rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked both its main policy rate and the Fasbi rate by 50bp amid concerns about the currency and the outlook for inflation. Consumer price inflation is likely to rise as high... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates kept on hold, but cut likely before year-end The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its main policy rate on hold at 2.5% today, as expected. Nevertheless, with inflation set to remain weak and economic growth likely to stay lacklustre, we have pencilled... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No more cuts ahead The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 2.50% at its meeting today. We believe the central bank’s easing cycle has come to an end, though subdued economic activity means rate hikes do not... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s rate-cutting cycle is not over yet The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate on hold at 2.75% at its meeting today, as was widely expected. In its accompanying statement, the RBA stressed that it expects an improvement in... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update June PMIs provide little encouragement The June PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors continue to struggle. New orders were particularly disappointing. We think fragile global demand will make life difficult for... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s economy to remain in the doldrums Data released today suggest that Vietnam’s economy remains in the doldrums, amid a severe banking crisis which has led to a squeeze on credit. Problems in the banking sector are likely to weigh on the... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Should Asia fear a repeat of 1994? As the Fed prepares to taper its program of quantitative easing, there are some concerns in Asia that it could trigger a messy re-run of 1994. We think these concerns are exaggerated. 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a moderate pick-up New Zealand’s economy grew slower than expected in Q1, as drought hit the agricultural sector. A pick-up is likely over the coming quarters, but weak export demand and tight fiscal policy will prevent... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rupee weakness complicates India's policy outlook Growing concern about the rupee’s decline and lingering worries about inflation appear to have been the key factors in the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 7.25%... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's inflation eases further, but RBI should remain on hold Today’s further fall in India's wholesale price inflation will come as a relief to policymakers. While the odds of a rate cut have now risen, we still think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will opt to... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rest of Asia unlikely to follow Indonesia's tightening path Bank Indonesia’s unexpected decision to hike its main policy rate today reflects concern about recent downward pressure on the rupiah and worries over the inflation outlook. Further hikes will follow... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand will remain reluctant to hike rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.5% today. We continue to expect the cash rate to remain on hold until the end of the year and to be kept low in 2014. 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
