Asia Economics Update MAS keeps policy settings on hold as economy contracts The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy on hold today and with the economy set to struggle and inflation likely to fall sharply over the coming quarters we expect today’s decision to... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: cuts coming sooner than consensus expects The Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) for a second consecutive meeting today, and attempted to push back against expectations of a rate cut this year. But with the economy... 11th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rates to stay unchanged in 2023 Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) left interest rates unchanged today and we expect rates to stay on hold for the rest of the year as policymakers look to strike a balance between clamping down on... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: end of the tightening cycle Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised its policy rate by a further 100bps (to 21.0%), but the tone of the statement was less hawkish than after previous meetings. While interest rates will need... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: expected rate cut, but further easing likely now Vietnam’s central bank lowered its benchmark refinancing rate by 50bp, on Friday evening, citing the need to support the economy. The rate cut was in line with our forecast and we now think the... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: Further tightening unlikely The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its main policy rate today by 25bps, to 1.75%. While most analysts expect at least one more hike we think a sharp drop in inflation will allow the central bank to... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Surprise hike in Taiwan, but cuts still likely in late 2023 In a surprise move, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bps (to 1.875%), but with the economy struggling badly and inflationary pressures set to ease further, we think... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: one more hike left in the tightening cycle The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) today slowed the pace of tightening as it raised its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%), and hinted that the tightening cycle was now approaching an end... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: Difficult times ahead despite IMF deal The deal announced yesterday between Sri Lanka and the IMF should eventually pave the way for a sustained economic recovery. However, the tough conditions being imposed as part of the agreement mean... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EMs’ exposure to bank flows A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: no further rate hikes Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged (at 5.75%), and signalled that with inflation falling back more quickly than expected, rates would be left on hold over the coming months. In... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: surprise cut to support struggling economy Vietnam’s central bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates late yesterday as it aims to support the struggling economy which has been hit hard by the downturn in global demand and problems in the... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update How will Asia respond to a more hawkish Fed? For most economies in Emerging Asia it will be local factors, not the actions of the US Fed, that determine the next moves by the region’s central banks. Given the poor outlook for economic growth in... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: Rates on hold, further tightening unlikely Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged today (at 2.75%) and with the economy likely to remain weak and inflation set to fall back further over the coming months, we expect rates... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
