Asia Economics Update Assessing the economic impact of recent market falls The macro impact of the recent falls in Asian markets is likely to be relatively small for most economies. The exceptions are the Philippines and Indonesia, where weaker currencies have forced... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: BNM unlikely to change policy With growth easing and inflation very low, Bank Negara Malaysia’s decision to leave its main policy rate on hold at 3.25% today was no surprise. While the risks are skewed towards looser policy, we... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: rate hike this year looking increasingly unlikely The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to leave interest rates on hold at 1.50% today came as no great surprise given the recent deterioration in the labour market. Looking ahead, with headwinds to growth... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further slowdown ahead Growth only slowed a touch in Emerging Asia last quarter, but weakening export demand and tighter monetary policy mean that the region’s economies are likely to cool further over the next year or so. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s household debt overhang a constraint on growth Household debt in Korea has surged in recent years, raising fears of a messy unwinding. But while a financial crisis is unlikely to materialise, the debt overhang will act as a constraint on growth. A... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Indonesia’s populist budget? Indonesia’s budget for next year envisages a big increase in cash handouts, and is clearly aimed at boosting support for the president ahead of next year’s general election. Worryingly, however, the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening to come in Indonesia Today’s rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) comes against a backdrop of continued weak economic growth and subdued inflation, and demonstrates that BI’s main focus remains supporting the currency. With... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does the crisis in Turkey mean for Asia? There is a good chance that the recent volatility in financial markets triggered by the crisis in Turkey will prompt Bank Indonesia into hiking interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday. For most... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: nearing the end of the tightening cycle The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today increased its policy rate for the third meeting in a row, and left the door open to further rate hikes. We think at least one further increase in rates... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand holds rates, but one hike likely this year The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate at 1.50% today, but the hawkish shift in the central bank’s tone means a rate hike is now likely before the end of the year. We are revising our end-2018... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rate cut still likely before the end of the year Given the recent rebound in inflation, it was no surprise that the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) decided to leave policy on hold today. But with growth continuing to disappoint and inflation likely... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for Pakistan after the election? Imran Khan looks set to be confirmed as Pakistan’s next prime minister just as the economy teeters on the brink of a full-blown economic crisis. His plans to boost social spending will have to be... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will Cambodia’s investment-led growth last? Hun Sen is likely to record his fifth election victory on Sunday against the backdrop of an economy riding high on the back of a Chinese investment boom. Chinese money should help to support strong... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: more rate rises likely despite today’s hold Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold today, but the hawkish tone of Governor Perry Warjiyo’s press conference and the accompanying policy statement reaffirm our view that further monetary... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines infrastructure drive: too much, too fast? The big push to update the Philippine’s infrastructure has led to a number of painful side effects, including a worsening external position, a falling currency and an increase in inflation. However... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates aggressively, more action to come The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) 100bp hike to its policy rate on Saturday, along with today’s devaluation of the rupee, underlines growing concerns about the country’s precarious external position... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
