Asia Economics Update How bad is the outlook for Indonesia? Indonesia is making much slower progress than others in the region in containing the spread of the coronavirus. This will hold back the economic recovery. We are cutting our GDP growth forecast for... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update QE will become part of Em Asian central bank toolkits With policy rates close to the zero bound in Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, we think it is only a matter of time before central banks in these economies implement full-blown quantitative easing (QE)... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Bank of Thailand? With the economy in a massive slump and prices falling sharply, today’s decision by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut interest rates by a further 25bp to a new all-time low of 0.50% came as no... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates left on hold, but more cuts coming Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to leave interest rates unchanged today at 4.5% is a big surprise given the slump in economic activity and the rebound in the rupiah. We think it will cut interest rates... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia to recover faster than elsewhere Most economies in Emerging Asia will experience falls in GDP of 10-20% in the first half of the year, which is similar to what we expect in most other parts of the world. However, with many in the... 18th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan cuts rates again, further loosening to come In response to the rapidly worsening outlook for the economy, Pakistan’s central bank today slashed its key policy rate by a further 100bp to 8.0%. With the economy in freefall and the authorities... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam cuts interest rates again, further easing is likely Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) today cut its main policy rate by 50bp to 4.5%, and further rate cuts are likely given the poor economic outlook. Although life in the country appears to be slowly... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: lockdown extension to delay recovery With its lockdown being extended again today, the Philippines faces at least two more weeks before the economic recovery will begin. We think GDP will contract by 6% this year, which would make it one... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Economic slump unlikely to trigger financial crisis Except for India’s, banking sectors across Emerging Asia went into the crisis in good shape. The economic recession now underway will cause a sharp rise in non-performing loans (NPLs), but most banks... 11th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts likely in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today cut its policy rate from 2.50% to 2.00%, and with the outlook for growth very poor, we think the central bank will ease policy again in the coming months. 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about the rise in government debt? Government debt will increase sharply across the region this year. For most countries this will not be a problem. The situation is most worrying in Pakistan and Sri Lanka where debt relief will be... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia reopening won’t prevent sharp downturn Malaysia reopened most of its economy today following nearly seven weeks of lockdown, but with consumer behaviour unlikely to return to normal quickly and global demand very weak, the economy is still... 4th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: what impact will easing the shutdown have? Vietnam has started to lift some of the shutdown measures that were introduced to slow the spread of the coronavirus, but this won’t prevent the export-dependent economy from slowing sharply this year... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What do lower oil prices mean for Emerging Asia? Most countries in Emerging Asia are net importers of oil, so would usually stand to gain from a big drop in prices. But that benefit won’t materialise until consumer spending recovers. For Malaysia... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan headed for recession despite containment success Taiwan’s success at containing the coronavirus outbreak at home will not prevent the economy from falling into a huge recession this year. We think the economy will shrink by 5% this year, which would... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What if shutdowns don’t work in South Asia? The impracticality of social distancing for many will make it hard for countries in South Asia to contain the coronavirus. Failure to contain the disease would have dreadful humanitarian consequences... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
