Asia Economics Update Surging inflation expectations suggest next rate move is up The Bank of Japan predictably left rates on hold today. But with inflation expectations surging to record highs, and the current economic downturn expected to be relatively short-lived and shallow, we... 19th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Chinese consumers on top of the world With consumer spending outpacing expectations, China will this year contribute twice as much to growth in real global consumption as the US, euro-zone and Japan combined. (See Chart 1.) This should... 18th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update First Korean rate hike in 12 months also likely to be last We suspect that today’s 25bp rate hike from the Bank of Korea (BoK) will be a one-off move similar to the European Central Bank’s warning shot last month, rather than the first in a new tightening... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A look ahead to Japan’s Q2 GDP data The first estimate of Japan’s second quarter GDP will be released, not very auspiciously, on the 13th (next Wednesday). We expect this to show an outright fall of around 0.3% q/q, although a much... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Should we be worried by China’s awful PMI? Today’s sub-50 reading for China’s official PMI implies that the manufacturing sector is in outright decline. Some are suggesting this might be enough for policymakers to reconsider their stance on... 1st August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan’s manufacturing recession to be short and shallow 30th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Ambitious inflation targets suggest more tightening to come By taking tougher than expected action, today’s rate hikes provide welcome reassurance that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is serious about tackling rising prices and will help keep inflation... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Change of tone in China, but no big policy shift Contrary to speculation by some commentators, Beijing’s slight change of emphasis on the economy over the weekend is more likely to show up in fiscal policy and administrative support for exporters... 28th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Cautious optimism after Indian coalition wins “trust” vote Today’s narrow confidence vote win, by 275 to 256 votes, gives a much needed boost of political capital to India’s beleaguered Indian National Congress (INC) party. We are cautiously optimistic that... 22nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China’s slowdown does not merit policy shift Today’s confirmation that both GDP growth and consumer price inflation have continued to slide in China raises the chance that officials will shift their policy concern to supporting economic activity... 17th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines’ 50bp rate hike unlikely to be replicated elsewhere The decision by the Philippines’ central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate by a larger-thanexpected 50bp to 5.75% should not be taken as a signal that other Asian central banks are about to... 17th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rate hike the first of a brief tightening cycle Thailand’s decision to raise interest rates today (by 25bps to 3.5%) was the first in more than two years. However, growing downside risks to growth, despite the recently announced fiscal stimulus... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's industrial sector slowing to a crawl The slowdown in India’s industrial sector growth to 3.8% y/y in May (from a revised 6.2% y/y in April) was worse than even we had expected. Recent monetary tightening suggests that the outlook for the... 11th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea turns to forex intervention to fight inflation The Bank of Korea (BoK) held official rates at 5.00% today, as widely expected. The accompanying statement highlighted the growing dilemma facing the BoK. But successful interventions to prop up the... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not collapsing June’s Tankan survey confirms that Japanese business conditions are deteriorating, but not as far as most had feared. The economy is in much better shape than at similar stages in previous downturns. 1st July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for Chinese fuel prices? Even after Thursday’s hike, China’s retail prices for refined fuels are well below those in international markets. However, that probably won’t be the case for much longer – either global oil prices... 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
