Asia Economics Update Capital outflows now affecting China too The latest data suggest that investors have been pulling money out of China in recent weeks. After dealing with hot inflows of nearly $200bn in the first half of 2008, officials will be glad for the... 14th October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean interest rates to fall to 3% The Bank of Korea’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) to 5% (together with a similar move by Taiwan and a further 50bp cut by Hong Kong) was not so surprising given yesterday’s... 9th October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China steals the show as Japan stays on hold One of the many talking points from today’s coordinated cuts in global interest rates is the fact that China quickly followed, whereas Japan left rates on hold. As it happens, the inaction from Japan... 8th October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold for a while yet The Bank of Japan’s willingness to cut interest rates even further from already exceptionally low levels, combined with the prospect of outright declines in both economic activity and prices, suggests... 7th October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia leading the way on rate cuts Today’s surprisingly large 100 basis points (bp) rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from 7.00% to 6.00% (consensus 50bp), may be the first in a series of aggressive moves from the world’s... 7th October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Credit crisis prompts India to loosen monetary stance Today’s surprise announcement by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of a 50 basis point (bp) cut in the cash reserve ratio is the latest indication that the country is not immune to the global financial... 6th October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tankan shows Japan's economy slowing, not collapsing The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was disappointing but not disastrous. The detail contained some reassuring news with regard to financial conditions and the labour market. 1st October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tankan to show Japanese economy still relatively healthy We believe that the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for September, due next Wednesday, will show that business conditions have held up rather better than the consensus expects. Indeed, the... 24th September 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China tries to stem the equity slide, again Chinese share valuations are now at their lowest in more than a decade. Yet government attempts today to give them a boost through a tax cut and direct share purchases may be more harmful than helpful... 18th September 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China shifts stance with surprise rate cut Today’s unexpected rate cut in China is intended as a sign that the government is willing to act preemptively to guarantee continued strong economic growth. But there will also be suspicions that the... 15th September 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates will fall soon despite hawkish statement Today’s decision by the Bank of Korea (BoK) to keep interest rates at 5.25% (after last month’s 25 basis points hike) was accompanied by a relatively hawkish policy statement. But we still expect the... 11th September 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Policy rethink ahead in China as inflation subsides Today’s trade and inflation data from China open the door to a series of policy adjustments, including to fuel pricing, but an end to currency appreciation is unlikely to be among them. 10th September 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further Australian rate cuts to be slow in coming Today’s 25bp rate cut to 7.0% confirms the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) shift in focus from inflation towards growth concerns. The RBA had previously been one of the most hawkish central banks... 2nd September 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates reach their peak With today’s rate hike, we think that the Bank of Thailand has probably done enough to keep inflation in check. Rates are likely to be left on hold into 2009, but attention will gradually turn to... 27th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China’s economy can do without a fiscal stimulus Market speculation that China’s government is lining up a big fiscal package is likely to prove unfounded. With the economy still in good shape, there is no immediate need for a stimulus. Nonetheless... 21st August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update South-East Asian interest rates close to a peak The recent fall in the prices of oil and other commodities strengthens our view that the present tightening cycle in South-East Asia will be a short one. We expect regional interest rates to peak in... 19th August 2008 · 1 min read
