Asia Economics Update Disappointing budget passes the buck to the RBI The latest fiscal policy initiatives unveiled today in India will not boost its flagging economy. With exports plummeting and industry facing a severe credit crunch, there is increasing pressure on... 16th February 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts in India imminent alongside fiscal easing With the economy reeling from the slowdown overseas and a domestic credit crunch, and with limited room for fiscal easing, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will cut rates fairly soon. We think the RBI... 12th February 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea heading towards zero. The Bank of Korea’s decision to cut the policy rate by 50bp to a fresh low of 2.0% signals its determination to support a crumbling economy. We had already expected rates to fall to 1%, but the... 12th February 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan positioning for a V-shaped recovery We expect next Monday’s preliminary data to show that the Japanese economy contracted by around 3.5% q/q in the fourth quarter of last year (an annualised rate of 15%). However, Japan may well then... 9th February 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is China still the US Treasury's best friend? The sustainability of China’s purchases of US Treasuries is once again being called into question. While the circumstances have shifted, much of the concern is familiar and still, we think, misguided. 4th February 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India not finished cutting rates The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to keep the key policy rate unchanged has reinforced market expectations that rates will remain on hold in the next few month. But with the economy in the... 27th January 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan has a lot more work to do The Bank of Japan’s modest programme of asset purchases is unlikely to be the last word, especially given the deterioration in economic and financial conditions acknowledged today in its own forecasts... 22nd January 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Worse still to come in China Some glimmers of light in the monthly data from China are raising hopes that the world’s third largest economy may be through the worst after quarterly growth slumped in Q4. But we fear that incoming... 22nd January 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China still suffering hot capital outflows Hot capital continues to flow out of China, although October’s flood has since diminished. This raises the chances of a modest renminbi depreciation against the dollar over the coming year. 13th January 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea not finished cutting rates The Bank of Korea’s decision to cut interest rates to a new low of 2.5% signals its determination to support a flagging economy. However, with exports plunging and domestic demand extremely weak, the... 9th January 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan cuts rates to near zero, will buy CP outright The Bank of Japan effectively reverted to a zero interest rate policy today and edged towards quantitative easing, although the embrace of QE is still half-hearted. We are certainly not impressed by... 19th December 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese Tankan could have been a lot worse The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was not quite as bad as we had feared, but we may just have been a quarter early. The one consolation is that Japan is not alone – other major... 15th December 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean interest rates on course for 1%. The Bank of Korea’s decision to cut its key official rate by a full percentage point to 3.0% today has already taken it to a historic low. But with incoming data pointing to an outright recession next... 11th December 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Brace for an awful Tankan We expect the headline numbers from the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for December, released next Monday, to be even worse than the consensus. Our forecast for the large manufacturers’... 10th December 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Chinese exports fall off a cliff Local sources suggest that Chinese exports have experienced a sudden collapse. This may explain last week’s inter-day weakness in the renminbi. But the case for a sustained depreciation is still poor. 8th December 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Policy easing in India won’t save the day The latest fiscal and monetary policy initiatives unveiled this weekend in India are unlikely to boost its flagging economy. With exports plummeting, industry facing a severe credit crunch and... 8th December 2008 · 1 min read
