Asia Economics Update Can Japan afford any more fiscal stimulus (revisited)? Today’s reports that Japan is planning another fiscal stimulus, which will include more than ¥10 trillion (2% of GDP) in additional spending, are little surprise. But they do raise the question of... 6th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Has China's recovery begun? China’s official PMI rose above 50 in March. This is good news, but China’s economy is set for a tepid recovery at best. 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How vulnerable are emerging markets to a rise in protectionism? We expect world trade to recover over the next year or so. But if protectionist pressures grow, emerging markets will be hit hard, with those in Eastern Europe likely to suffer the most. 1st April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan's Tankan to signal early recovery? The Bank of Japan’s “Tankan” survey, released next Wednesday (1st April), will doubtless show that business conditions worsened further in the first quarter, but probably not by as much as the markets... 23rd March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan adds to its armoury Today’s announcement that the Bank of Japan is willing to provide subordinated loans to banks continues the drip-feed of unconventional policy measures it has introduced since October. The latest... 17th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Have Chinese interest rates bottomed out? A surge in lending might increase the chances that Chinese interest rates remain on hold this year, but if the economy remains weak, as we expect, the People’s Bank will still be forced to cut again. 12th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update BoK pauses, but rates still heading towards zero The Bank of Korea left the benchmark rate on hold at a historic low of 2% today. But with the economy so weak, we think the central bank will resume cutting soon. We expect that rates will fall close... 12th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Japan still a surplus country? We expect Japan to record a deficit this year both on trade in goods and services and on the overall current account balance. This sharp turnaround (from large surpluses in 2007) reflects the double... 9th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No new stimulus from China The renewed optimism about China’s prospects that had supported global equities earlier in the week could start to unravel on the back of today’s disappointing budget. 5th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian central bank still has a lot more work to do The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to cut the key benchmark rate by 50bp today signals its determination to shore up a flagging economy. But with the key rate still relatively high at 5.0% and... 4th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Seven key issues at China's National People's Congress 4th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of Australia still has work to do Today’s unexpected decision to keep rates on hold reflects the resilience of the Australian economy in the last few months. But with business confidence collapsing and a big correction still to come... 3rd March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is China shifting its investment strategy? The scale of China’s outward investment makes it a potentially powerful force in many markets, but also leaves China with few alternatives to foreign government debt for the bulk of its purchases. 26th February 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A tiny silver lining in Japan's trade data January’s data all but guarantee that collapsing exports will make another large negative contribution to Japan’s GDP in the first quarter. However, imports have also started to drop back, which means... 25th February 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Dismal Thai GDP data suggest large rate cut imminent Today’s Q4 GDP numbers underscore the speed at which the Thai economy is deteriorating. With external demand set to contract even more over coming months and domestic demand weakening as well, worse... 23rd February 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update GDP collapse largely made in Taiwan Taiwan’s economy has been hurt by falling global demand but the roots of its weakness lie closer to home. This suggests that Taiwan will fare worse than its neighbours as global demands contracts and... 18th February 2009 · 1 min read
