Asia Economics Update Japanese equities could be the best of a bad lot There are good reasons to expect Japanese equities to prove relatively resilient even if foreign appetite fades again: the market is much less overvalued than it used to be; Japan is poised to enjoy a... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China's growth still falling short Our in-house measure of growth in the Chinese economy points to a stronger recovery in May but we still doubt that the economy will meets the government’s target for an 8% expansion this year. 22nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan's Tankan to surprise on the upside Japan’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS), released this morning, has allowed us to firm up our forecast for the Q2 Tankan survey, released on 1st July. We now forecast that the headline index (current... 22nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan won't lead a rush for the exit The Bank of Japan shows no signs of repeating its past mistake of tightening policy prematurely, as was the case in both 2000 and 2006. Interest rates will remain near-zero for the foreseeable future. 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's Reserve Bank easing looks over The unexpected strength of April industrial output adds to the evidence that India’s slowdown has passed its worst point. GDP growth should accelerate during the rest of 2009. Weak inflation pressures... 12th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan's households less pessimistic, spending to remain weak The further recovery in Japanese consumer confidence in May is a necessary but unfortunately not sufficient condition for a sustained rebound in household spending. 12th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update BoK holds, but rate cuts still more likely than hikes The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its key interest rate unchanged today, noting that “proactive fiscal and monetary policy” measures have stabilised GDP. But despite signs of recovery, there are still... 11th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What should we make of the surge in Chinese investment? China’s reported fixed investment soared in May. But if the economy is doing so well, why did imports post an even steeper decline? 11th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Risk appetite to fade as recovery disappoints Today we have revised our key economic forecasts. At the same time, we have updated our projections for currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan has turned the corner, others to disappoint We are nudging our forecasts for the leading Asian economies higher, but only in Japan do we see much scope for further positive surprises. 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: more easing ahead Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its key overnight lending rate by 25bps to 7% today, in line with our and consensus expectations. While many analysts believe that rates have bottomed out, we maintain our view... 3rd June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update RBA holds, but Australian rates still look too high The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged today as expected. But its accompanying statement struck a more dovish note than many others had anticipated. This re-enforces our... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More signs that Asia's recovery is taking its time The slight fall in China’s official PMI in May is actually fairly encouraging since the index usually falls by much more at this time of year. But Asia’s recovery is only gaining ground slowly, as... 1st June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan's trade data show Q2 off to a flying start The jump in Japanese export volumes in April gets the second quarter off to a flying start. Combined with the improvement in the forward-looking survey data it looks increasingly likely that GDP will... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand ends easing cycle too early The Bank of Thailand (BOT) left its 1-day repo rate on hold at 1.25% today, against our and consensus expectations for a 25bps cut. The weakness of domestic demand and the spectre of sustained... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is investment spurring recovery in China? Chinese investment soared last month according to the official figures. Yet something doesn’t add up. Steel inventories stayed high, steel prices remained flat and sales of excavators have plummeted... 15th May 2009 · 1 min read
