Asia Economics Update PMIs point to continued momentum in emerging Asia The short histories and sketchy track records of PMIs in emerging Asia limit their usefulness as leading indicators. Nonetheless, they are increasingly closely-watched. Read alongside other recent... 1st September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update RBA in no rush to hike The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today as expected. Despite rising business and consumer confidence, both ourselves and the RBA believe that the near-term... 1st September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How big a worry is Japanese unemployment? It is tempting to dismiss the significance of the surge in Japanese unemployment as a lagging indicator, but this would be a mistake. With nominal wages already falling outright, growing excess labour... 28th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines should keep surprising on the upside Today it was the Philippines’ turn to announce a far stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP gain. As elsewhere in Asia, it is the resilience of domestic demand which is pulling the economy through, but the... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to stay on an improving track Today’s better-than-expected Q2 GDP figures confirm that Malaysia is pulling out of recession. Malaysia’s upswing will likely be sluggish compared to the region but this should ensure that the... 26th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Poor monsoon will not derail India’s recovery Strong June industrial output adds to the evidence that India’s recovery will be sustained and probably rapid. The poor 2009 monsoon is a wildcard but, at worst, GDP growth this year should only be 0... 12th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is China’s momentum slipping? Investors may have overestimated the speed of China’s recovery in the first half of 2009. But by focusing too narrowly on headline investment and loans data – such as those released for July today –... 11th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean policy rates set to stay low The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged today. Economic recovery and concerns over incipient asset bubbles in the housing and equity markets have led some to expect policy rates to rise later... 11th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Focus turns to timing the first rate hike in Indonesia Bank Indonesia cut its key overnight lending rate by 25bps to 6.5% today as we and the consensus expected. While the accompanying statement leaves the door open for further cuts we think that rates... 5th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Don’t trust China’s numbers, but don’t doubt the rebound Few will be surprised by the suggestion on the front page of today’s FT that China’s growth figures don’t add up. We created our China Activity Proxy (CAP) in an attempt to sidestep scepticism about... 5th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates have bottomed out The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today as expected. The accompanying statement struck a more hawkish note than previous releases and markets are pricing in a... 4th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand Q2 GDP looks set for solid rebound The improvement in economic activity in June confirms that Thai GDP rebounded in Q2, while leading indicators suggest Q3 has started on a strong footing. 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will deflation stall Japan’s recovery? Japan’s renewed slide into deflation does not appear to have prevented the economy from rebounding last quarter – indeed the boost to real incomes may actually have helped. However, there is a growing... 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India turns its mind to inflation risks India’s central bank is increasingly concerned about inflation risks, raising the likelihood that it will hike interest rates before the end of the year. 28th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China's leaders play to domestic audiences too The future of the dollar will be in the spotlight at high-level meetings between China and the US today and tomorrow. China is understandably concerned about the value of its stock of reserve assets... 27th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines is leaving its past behind Yesterday’s debt rating upgrade from Moody’s was catch-up and long overdue but does at least acknowledge the increased resilience of the Philippine economy to global shocks and its likely higher long... 24th July 2009 · 1 min read
