Asia Economics Update Australian rate-tightening cycle will be modest The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.25% today, sooner than most had expected. Markets are now pricing in further rate rises back up to a “neutral” level of 5.0-5.5% by late... 6th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds rates but probably not for much longer Bank Indonesia (BI) left its overnight lending rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and retained its neutral bias. But inflation looks set to rise sharply over the next few months and we believe that the... 5th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update PMIs add to impression of Asian strength Asia’s PMI releases today add to the weight of evidence that Asia’s recovery has plenty of positive momentum. 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update First Philippine rate rise likely in Q2 2010 Today the Philippines’ central bank, as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 4% and retained a neutral bias. The economic impact of Tropical Storm Ketsana should be small and the GDP upswing is... 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan Tankan points to continued recovery The Bank of Japan’s September Tankan survey released today showed a further improvement in the business conditions faced by large manufacturers and large non-manufacturers. But the pick-up in... 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s recovery still up and running, but pauses for breath Thailand’s recovery faltered in August but GDP still looks on track to climb in Q3. Investment and household spending will continue to lead the way and will offset yet another drag from net exports. 30th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s impressive rebound threatens overheating Vietnam is always the first in Asia to publish quarterly GDP and the Q3 data published today showed that its economic recovery is gaining strength. The improvement, as in China, is coming on the back... 29th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China still hurtling along Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy expanded at an annualised pace of 15% over the summer. With many companies only just starting to spend the proceeds of loans, rapid growth... 28th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to look for in the Tankan The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey (released on 1st October) will show a marked improvement in business conditions faced by large manufacturers. However, a rebound in sentiment among smaller... 25th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Deflation threat to keep Taiwan rates on prolonged hold With deflation still a lingering threat, interest rates will probably remain at their current low level in Taiwan until well after they start to climb elsewhere in the region. 24th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese exports continue to recover As usual, the headlines today have focused on the continued weakness of Japanese exports in year-onyear terms. But the more revealing monthly profile shows a sixth successive increase. 24th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's upswing will likely disappoint Today’s data show New Zealand left recession behind in Q2 2009, when GDP climbed in q/q terms for the first time since Q4 2007. Sustained recovery should be expected but the upswing will probably be... 23rd September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China still accelerating China’s monthly data for August support our view that the economy is still accelerating. The current structure of growth may be unsustainable in the long-run, but the government appears unwilling to... 11th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update RBNZ on prolonged hold The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today, as expected. The RBNZ appears to share our view that the durability of the GDP upswing, after an improvement over... 10th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean monetary tightening should be gradual The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged today. Property price concerns and improvements in the activity data have increased the chance that the BoK will raise rates sooner rather than... 10th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update First Indonesia rate hike likely in Q1 2010 Bank Indonesia (BI), as expected, today left its overnight lending rate at 6.5%, the first no change since mid-2008. The policy statement was neutral. BI is now more confident that Indonesia’s upswing... 3rd September 2009 · 1 min read
