Asia Economics Update What happened to China’s fiscal stimulus? A resurgence in revenue will cap China’s fiscal deficit at just 3% of GDP in 2009. Looking ahead, the Budget for 2010 could signal how committed the government is to economic rebalancing. 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Capital controls unlikely, but rupiah to strengthen anyway Bank Indonesia is weighing up the costs and benefits of implementing capital controls because of concerns over “hot money” coming into the economy. However, we doubt the authorities will do anything... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is China gearing up for its own lost decade? There are many parallels between the current lending boom in China and that in the late-1980s which brought down Japan’s economy. But there are several reasons to think China will avoid the same fate. 18th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan tops G7 growth table (again) We are upgrading our forecast for Japanese GDP growth in 2010 from 3.0% to 3.5%. This is well above the latest published consensus forecast of around 1.5%, as well as the projections from the likes of... 16th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Markets too aggressive on Korean rate hikes to come The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today. We believe the economic upswing is well established and that the political pressures on the BoK to hold rates low will probably ease early... 12th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China’s commodity imports slow Despite further evidence of economic strength, China’s monthly data for October suggested that commodity stockpiling is waning. Lending growth declined more than expected, but credit policy is set to... 11th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Japan’s recovery already faltering? The falls in the main balances of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey in October suggest that the recovery lost a little momentum at the start of the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, growth was probably... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia’s impressive upswing to stay on track Indonesia’s Q3 GDP growth accelerated to 4.2% y/y and all the key indicators point to a further pick up in coming quarters, with domestic demand leading the way. We are very positive on the outlook... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update First Philippine rate rise still some way off Today the Philippine central bank, as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 4% and retained a neutral bias. Damage from recent storms has made the near term outlook more uncertain. But we still... 5th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia stays on hold but rate hikes still close Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected. The neutral bias was retained too, probably with the aim of trying to curb rupiah appreciation. Rupiah strength is relevant to the... 4th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to keep rising near term but pause mid-2010 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.50% today, as expected. We still expect another hike in December but this is now not much firmer than a 50:50 call. The bigger picture is... 3rd November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean economy still strong in early Q4 October data released over the last few days show that Korea’s economy retained much of its momentum going into Q4. Capacity use is back at pre-crisis levels and house prices are still rising. The... 2nd November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update People’s Bank signals sharp growth slowdown in China The latest PMI data support our view that growth in China remains strong. However, the People’s Bank appears to disagree, with potentially major implications for the policy outlook. 2nd November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update September data confirm acceleration in Thai GDP The recovery in the Thai economy gathered momentum in the third quarter, boosted by investment and household consumption. While growth is likely to stay strong in the final quarter and over 2010 we... 30th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Falling unemployment eases pressure on Bank of Japan The Bank of Japan has announced a timetable for the withdrawal of some emergency facilities that have become increasingly redundant. But the Bank’s own forecasts of persistent deflation confirm that... 30th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update RBNZ in no rush to hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), as expected, left its cash rate unchanged at 2.5%. More surprisingly, the RBNZ also remained committed to keeping rates low into the second half of 2010, an... 29th October 2009 · 1 min read
