Asia Economics Update Vietnam faces a challenging policy adjustment Q4 GDP growth was high and inflation has picked up. Policy interest rates were kept on hold in late December but another upward move is likely soon. Balance of payments strains should ease this year... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian PMIs point to continued upswing Today’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for December signal that Asia’s recovery remains on track. Exports and industrial output should continue to perform well in the coming months. 4th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore upswing still on track Singapore’s recovery stalled at the end of 2009 but the disappointment should be short-lived. Q4 GDP was down q/q because manufacturing continues to be thrown around by the highly volatile biomedicals... 4th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan rates to remain on prolonged hold Taiwan’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, as expected. With deflation still a lingering threat, interest rates will remain at their current level until well after they start to climb... 24th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand recovery off to a slow start Today’s Q3 GDP data show that New Zealand’s recovery is continuing, albeit at a weaker pace than expected. We still expect a sustained and eventually strong upswing. However, the markets have moved... 23rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippine rates to move up in the first half of 2010 Today the Philippine central bank (BSP) left its policy rate unchanged at 4%, as expected, and retained a neutral bias. The economic upswing will almost certainly continue but inflation still looks... 17th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s upswing remains on track Today’s GDP data show that Australia’s recovery was sustained in Q3 on the back of solid domestic demand. Long-run prospects remain bright thanks to the mining boom, high population growth, and... 16th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea signals policy rate will move up soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. More importantly, the Governor’s press conference commentary was hawkish and suggests that an interest rate hike is not far... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand signals earlier rate hikes The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), as expected, left its cash rate at 2.5%. But it brought forward the first projected hike to mid-2010 after steadfastly insisting up to now that rates would... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia meanders to the exit Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and gave no indication that it is thinking about raising rates soon. We believe that the risks to inflation from keeping policy... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to hike The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.25% today, as expected. The economy is recovering but at a far slower pace than the rest of Asia. Thailand is also more reliant... 2nd December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia likely to pause its tightening cycle The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.75% today, as expected. The accompanying policy statement shows that the RBA considers it has already made a “material adjustment” to... 1st December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s impressive upswing to stay on track India’s Q3 GDP, published today, surprised on the upside with manufacturing and services leading the way. The upswing will almost certainly stay strong and, as we have long signposted, policy rates... 30th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right moves The change came a little earlier than we had expected, but today’s devaluation and policy rate hike in Vietnam was no surprise. The currency will probably fall further over the next 12 months even... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan is probably finished cutting rates Today’s 50bps policy rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan was expected but, we believe, is likely to be the last cut in the current cycle. Politics is clearly a wildcard but the economy has... 24th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia rates to stay low Bank Negara, as expected, today kept policy rates unchanged and again indicated that it will keep rates on hold for a prolonged period. The economy is picking up but the upswing is more fragile than... 24th November 2009 · 1 min read
