Asia Economics Update Markets too aggressive on Korea hikes to come The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. Political pressures to hold off monetary tightening have intensified and we now expect the first increase to be delayed until... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right move Vietnam today devalued its currency by 3%. Only the timing of the move was a surprise. The devaluation is necessary and reduces the risk of a disorderly currency decline. Nevertheless, more... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia’s impressive upswing to stay on track Indonesia’s Q4 GDP growth accelerated to 5.4% y/y and all the key indicators point to a further pickup in coming quarters, with domestic demand leading the way. Monetary tightening is imminent, which... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia set to stay on hold for longer Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and kept its neutral bias. The economic upswing should continue while annual inflation will probably stay below the 6% ceiling. We... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian PMIs point to a strong first half January’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) signal that Asia’s exports and industrial output will continue to perform well in the coming months. But price pressures are rising too... 2nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan set to stay on prolonged hold The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), as expected, left policy rates unchanged at 12.50% over the weekend. We forecast that rates will stay on hold this year, before rising in 2011. The economy should... 1st February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippine rate hike draws closer The Philippine central bank (BSP) today left its key policy rate unchanged at 4.0%, as expected, but also began to unwind some of the liquidity support put in place during the global crisis. We still... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand still set to hike from mid-year The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) as expected left its cash rate unchanged at 2.5% overnight and, crucially, retained its commitment to start lifting rates from around the middle of this year... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia set to stay in the slow lane Bank Negara (BNM) left policy rates unchanged today at 2.00%, as expected. There were no surprises in the policy statement which pointed to rates remaining on hold for a while. Malaysia’s recovery is... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's slowdown will be temporary Q4 GDP published overnight in Korea showed that growth eased to 0.2% q/q due to weaker exports and government spending. But the slowdown was inevitable after very strong GDP gains in Q2 and Q3. The... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand finally catches up with the rest of Asia Thailand has lagged the regional recovery but data from the end of last year, including December foreign trade released today, have been strong. We have therefore lifted our 2010 GDP forecast... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines stress-test on the way Philippines country credit risk will be in the spotlight over the next six months given that the 2010 borrowing requirement will probably hit record levels, and ahead of May’s presidential and... 18th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India set to lift rates at the end of January The surge in December wholesale prices, published today, means that it is now a near-certainty that India will tighten monetary policy later this month. A hike in the cash reserve requirement already... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand shifts a little towards the exit The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, as expected. The upswing will probably be sluggish, but the BoT did start to prime the markets to expect rates to move up in... 13th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian economy to grow 5% this year Malaysia’s November industrial output data, published today, were poor, as were November foreign trade data published last week. Nevertheless, we remain positive on the outlook. GDP growth should... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia probably won't stay on hold for much longer Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and kept its neutral bias. Nevertheless, we still believe that the risk of far higher inflation from keeping rates low for too long... 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
