Asia Economics Update India is virtually certain to tighten again next week Wholesale price data released today in India were not as bad as widely expected. Nevertheless, the only uncertainty ahead of the 20th April monetary review meeting is whether policy rates move up by... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies to rise further Resumed renminbi appreciation against the dollar looks only a matter of time. Other currencies in Emerging Asia should rise too but the overall impact of a move by China should be small. The Korean... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s labour market strengthens Bank of Korea (BoK) Governor Kim shares the government view that policy rate rises should be delayed until the labour market improves significantly. The large employment gain in March, reported today... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore firing on all cylinders Preliminary Q1 GDP data from Singapore were stunningly strong and, as we had expected, encouraged the authorities to tighten monetary policy by allowing the currency to appreciate. Economic growth... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks increase again The shocking weekend events in Bangkok could make it more difficult to reach a compromise on the date of new elections, or may bring new urgency to the negotiations. We suspect that new elections will... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Bank of Korea Governor in no hurry to hike The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. New BoK Governor Kim is sympathetic to the government view that monetary tightening can be delayed, while imminent elections... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks should stay contained Yesterday’s declaration of a state of emergency in Thailand could mark the start of a dangerous escalation in the confrontation between street protestors and the government. But while the stand-off... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian policy rates to rise again in May The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 4.25% today. GDP growth should be strong this year despite the withdrawal of stimulus measures, while core inflation remains above target... 6th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia on track to lift rates around mid-year Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates at 6.5% today, as expected. The economic upswing will almost certainly stay strong but bank credit growth is still weaker than the authorities would like and annual... 6th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian PMIs still point to rapid growth, but for how long? The March manufacturing PMIs for emerging Asia (ex-China) were generally weaker but still signal that exports and industry will keep improving in coming months. Nevertheless, global conditions will... 1st April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia aims to improve investment conditions Malaysia’s New Economic Model (NEM), published today, is a positive step toward promoting longterm economic reform. Boosting foreign investment, lifting education standards and reducing the role of... 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam growth holds strong but inflation is the problem Vietnam is the first Asian country to report GDP data and the latest figures, released today, showed that the economy expanded 5.8% y/y in Q1. The economic upswing will probably strengthen during the... 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan set to stay on prolonged hold The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 12.50% over the weekend. We forecast that rates will stay on hold for the rest of 2010. The economic upswing should... 27th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam moving too slowly The central bank of Vietnam (SBV) today announced that its key policy rate will stay unchanged at 8.0% during April. This is a dangerous strategy. Inflation has already hit 9.5% y/y and will probably... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan rates on hold until June at least Taiwan’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, as expected. The economy has recovered very strongly, but inflation remains a distant threat. As a result, rates are likely to remain at their... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks contained, but for how long? The government will probably continue to hold the upper hand in Thailand’s street protests and a compromise is increasingly likely which will involve early elections. But a new vote may not end the... 22nd March 2010 · 1 min read
