Asia Economics Update Korea-US trade deal good for both sides The amendments in the Korea-US free trade deal (KORUS) announced earlier this month have caused some protests in Korea, but the risk that the new arrangement is blocked by the National Assembly looks... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s upswing set to stay strong Data released today showed that Sri Lanka’s economy expanded at a slightly slower pace in Q3. Nevertheless, the outlook remains upbeat. The central bank (CBSL) left policy rates unchanged yesterday... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a prolonged fiscal tightening The half-yearly Economic and Fiscal Update published overnight in New Zealand makes it clear that the May Budget will be a tough affair even though 2011 will be an election year. It is essential that... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further Bank of Korea tightening only a matter of time The Bank of Korea (BoK) held its policy rate at 2.5% today, as expected. Nonetheless, the economy should regain momentum during the course of next year while inflation is likely to trend higher. The... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand to keep policy rates unchanged for longer The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the cash rate at 3.0% earlier today, as expected. What’s more, the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) was downbeat, yet again. We have adjusted our forecast... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's policy tightening is not over, but will be slow The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.75% today, as expected. Its commentary was unusually dovish. Nevertheless, above-trend GDP growth still looks likely in 2011-12, which means... 7th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Should we worry about India's widening external deficit? The current account shortfall in India has climbed quickly to the equivalent of almost 4% of GDP while the composition of foreign financing has deteriorated. Nevertheless, we judge that this should... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A policy rate hike by Bank Indonesia looks close Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its reference rate unchanged today at 6.5%. The no-change outcome was not a surprise but we suspect that the decision was finely-balanced. Inflation is picking up fast while... 3rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Vietnam heading for another crisis in 2011? Yes is the answer to this question, unless policy-makers change course. A shift is needed towards targeting stability and lower inflation, rather than achieving high growth for its own sake. The good... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia's industrial slowdown is bottoming out The November manufacturing sector PMIs in India, Taiwan, and Korea, which were published today, all climbed relative to October. Strong intra-regional trade and the pick-up in domestic demand are... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's GDP slowdown will be short-lived Australia’s economy in Q3 expanded for the seventh consecutive quarter, albeit at a slow pace. The outlook is upbeat. GDP growth should accelerate soon to an above-trend pace, with investment leading... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand makes the right move The Bank of Thailand (BoT), in a surprise move earlier today, lifted its policy rate by 25bp to 2.0%. Domestic demand is well placed to lift GDP growth during the course of 2011, which means that... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's upswing will stay in good shape Q3 GDP data in India, published today, showed that the economy continued to expand at a rapid pace. The upswing will probably stay strong and slowing inflation will remain the top policy priority. We... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's central bank has probably tightened enough The central bank in Pakistan (SBP) today lifted its discount rate by 50bp to 14.0%, as we had expected. The annual gain in consumer prices should peak in coming months and inflation pressures from the... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines still set for above-trend growth in 2011 Q3 GDP in the Philippines, published today, was down in q/q terms. We were the only one of those surveyed by Bloomberg to forecast that there would be a contraction, but we remain positive on the... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka targets growth over fiscal consolidation Sri Lanka’s budget for 2011, announced today, aims to sustain the upswing by cutting taxes and by lifting private sector investment. While GDP growth will probably stay rapid next year, the budget... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
