Asia Economics Update Bangladesh: the economic fallout from the unrest The outbreak of political violence and the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has rocked Bangladesh today. But provided that peace and stability is restored relatively soon, the... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Demographics are not destiny in the Philippines Newly-published data show that the Philippines has entered a demographic sweet spot that could provide a big boost to economic growth. But this will only happen if enough new jobs can be created for... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Indonesian rupiah? A narrowing of the current account deficit and a decline in the share of government bonds held by non-residents means the rupiah is much less exposed to sudden shifts in global risk appetite than in... 11th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Dovish hold from the Bank of Korea, cuts coming soon The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged today at 3.5%, but dropped clear hints that interest rate cuts would be coming soon. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to fall further... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update AI and friendshoring boosting (some) Asian exporters Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have... 10th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update La Niña poses downside risks to inflation in SE Asia A La Niña could bring with it favourable growing conditions for crops in South East Asia, and help to put downward pressure on food prices across the region. It adds to the reasons to think the... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korean trade, Indonesia inflation The PMIs from Emerging Asia picked up strongly last month, but we doubt this will last given the subdued outlook for global demand. Meanwhile, the decline in inflation in Indonesia last month supports... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan cuts rate, but further easing to be gradual The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a 150bps rate cut, and while further cuts are likely, ongoing negotiations with the IMF for a new long-term loan deal mean that... 10th June 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update What Modi 3.0 means for India's economy Narendra Modi will begin his third term as India’s Prime Minister with a weakened mandate and that will make the passage of contentious economic reforms more difficult. But he will still be able to... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May) The Manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Asia remained weak in May but have been a poor guide to the hard data on activity over the past year anyway. However, the PMIs have been a decent guide to price... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to cut interest rates in October The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%) and appeared to indicate that interest rates would not be cut until it was confident that inflation would fall back to target. Given our... 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Political turmoil undermining Vietnam’s appeal The political turmoil in Vietnam, which has led to a number of key leaders being sacked from their posts, is undermining the country’s reputation for stability, which until now has been one of its key... 20th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: demographics key challenge for new PM Increased immigration would be the easiest way for Singapore to offset a decline in the working age population. However, such a move would be politically controversial, and deciding how many foreign... 14th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation to return to target by mid-year Korea is one of the few countries in the region where inflation is still above target. However, with economic growth set to slow and the government stepping up efforts to bring food prices down, we... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
