Asia Economics Focus The anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930s There is still no universally accepted single cause of the Great Depression. But our analysis suggests that the main culprit for the role of catalyst was the bursting of the bubbles in the equity and... 19th January 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Indian GDP growth set to halve as credit crunch bites The Indian economy is facing a severe credit crunch which will hit investment spending, the main driver of growth in recent years, extremely hard. We expect GDP growth to fall to around 4% next year... 17th December 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is China running out of steam after 30 years of reform? Thirty years after the launch of reform in China, the experience of Japan and the Asian tigers underlines the need for China to shift its economic model if it is to sustain rapid growth over the... 24th November 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus China’s fiscal package may not be quite what it seems 10th November 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is trouble lurking within Japan’s financial system? The Japanese financial system remains in relatively good shape. Despite the erosion of bank capital due to sliding stock markets, a number of factors suggest that there are no major risks to the... 6th November 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Bank of Korea to cut rates to a historic low of 1.5% High indebtedness, dysfunctional credit markets, and the prospect of a deep and prolonged global slowdown will drag Korea into its first recession since the Asian financial crisis of 1997. We expect... 31st October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Japan heading for deflation again Inflation fears are rapidly being replaced by the very real chance of deflation in all the major economies. Indeed, we now expect Japanese inflation to turn negative again next year, averaging minus 0... 28th October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus What’s really happening to Japanese wages? A closer look at different measures of wages growth in Japan shows that, contrary to most analysis, the economic recovery in recent years has not been a “wageless” phenomenon. Even continued modest... 23rd October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Markets are wrong about the renminbi Markets appear to have all but given up on the idea that the renminbi will appreciate against the dollar over the next year. But we find nothing in the data on China’s real economy or in the outlook... 11th September 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Will the BRICs win the inflation battle? We expect inflation of 4% or below in China next year, but mounting core pressures mean that Russia is likely to suffer double-digit inflation for the rest of this decade. But the policy response may... 20th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Will China still look as strong after the Olympics? For many, China enters a new era with the hosting of the Olympics. There is a growing sense that China is also going through an economic transition: a poor run of data has sparked questions over... 8th August 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Construction rebound to help Japan steer well clear of recession The recovery in the construction sector should prevent an outright fall in Japanese GDP in the second quarter and contribute around 0.7 percentage points to growth in the year as whole. The economy is... 22nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Next rate move in Australia will be a cut We think that Australian interest rates will be cut by the end of this year and eventually fall to 6% (from 7.25%) by the end of 2009. In contrast, the markets are currently pricing in a 75% chance... 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Will China's fuel subsidies be the next to go? High oil prices have forced a number of Asian countries to reform their fuel subsidy programmes in the last couple of weeks. China is by far the largest oil consumer in the region and matters far more... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How can China boost domestic demand? Rebalancing of China’s economy away from investment and heavy industry will require significant reform of the financial sector and of monetary policy, including higher (not lower) interest rates... 29th May 2008 · 1 min read
