Asia Economics Focus Are Australian banks vulnerable to a global financial crisis? Australia stands out as one of the economies in Asia that might be most vulnerable to a renewed global banking crisis. Its high external debt and current account deficit make it reliant on foreign... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How would emerging Asia cope with a euro break-up? The major impact of euro-zone break-up on emerging Asia would come from the resulting weakness of export demand. If the break-up was relatively smooth and the US continued to grow, as we think is... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is emerging Asia experiencing a property price bubble? Although Asia as a whole is not experiencing a property price bubble, we believe that prices in Hong Kong and Taipei are now in bubble territory. There is a growing risk of a sharp correction in these... 25th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Should we be worried about sovereign debt in Asia? Emerging Asia is not in any imminent danger of a sovereign-debt crisis: debt levels in most countries are low, while strong growth makes it easier to finance debt burdens. However, another sharp... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can Asia avoid the middle-income trap? Most of emerging Asia should continue to grow rapidly for at least another decade, and much longer if the right policy choices are made. The key exception is China where, despite a bright long-run... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Capital flows to emerging markets: an accident waiting to happen? Fears of a widespread bubble in emerging markets look overdone, but there are growing signs that rapid capital inflows are stoking problems in several countries. We think the biggest risks lie in... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will emerging markets outperform again? The relative valuations of emerging market equities and bonds are no longer as attractive as they have been in the past. But the fears of overheating and hard landings that have held many back so far... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Emerging markets will not rescue the rest of the world Emerging market economies will continue to grow rapidly over the next few years. But with current account surpluses in most of Asia and among oil producers likely to remain high, this will not be of... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How big a threat is New Zealand’s negative savings rate? New Zealand’s household savings rate has been negative since the early 1990s and has now widened to around 14% of disposable income. The gap between spending and income should narrow over the next few... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Three challenges facing emerging markets in 2010 Emerging markets have, on the whole, weathered the crisis in the global economy well. But 2010 will bring a fresh set of challenges. Overall, we think Asia is best placed to prosper, followed by Latin... 11th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How long will Hong Kong’s dollar peg survive? The evidence linking sharp asset price moves in Hong Kong to its tight dollar peg is weaker than many think. With the peg in place, asset price bubbles are a threat for the future. But a shift to an... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus New Zealand facing a long hard slog New Zealand’s economy is likely to struggle over the medium term after an initial strong bounce next year. We see its GDP growth being closer to the long drawn out recoveries we expect in the US and... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Vietnam is back on track and set for strong growth The Vietnamese economy grew rapidly from 1995 to mid-2008 on the back of China-style free market reforms which have lifted exports and foreign investment, and brought a big reduction in poverty levels... 16th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Two cheers for the DPJ Confirmation of a decisive Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) victory in Sunday’s general election in Japan should provide a further near-term boost to the Nikkei and possibly the yen too, but this... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
