China Economics Focus Can Asia avoid the middle-income trap? Most of emerging Asia should continue to grow rapidly for at least another decade, and much longer if the right policy choices are made. The key exception is China where, despite a bright long-run... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Capital flows to emerging markets: an accident waiting to happen? Fears of a widespread bubble in emerging markets look overdone, but there are growing signs that rapid capital inflows are stoking problems in several countries. We think the biggest risks lie in... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will emerging markets outperform again? The relative valuations of emerging market equities and bonds are no longer as attractive as they have been in the past. But the fears of overheating and hard landings that have held many back so far... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Emerging markets will not rescue the rest of the world Emerging market economies will continue to grow rapidly over the next few years. But with current account surpluses in most of Asia and among oil producers likely to remain high, this will not be of... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How big a threat is New Zealand’s negative savings rate? New Zealand’s household savings rate has been negative since the early 1990s and has now widened to around 14% of disposable income. The gap between spending and income should narrow over the next few... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Three challenges facing emerging markets in 2010 Emerging markets have, on the whole, weathered the crisis in the global economy well. But 2010 will bring a fresh set of challenges. Overall, we think Asia is best placed to prosper, followed by Latin... 11th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How long will Hong Kong’s dollar peg survive? The evidence linking sharp asset price moves in Hong Kong to its tight dollar peg is weaker than many think. With the peg in place, asset price bubbles are a threat for the future. But a shift to an... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus New Zealand facing a long hard slog New Zealand’s economy is likely to struggle over the medium term after an initial strong bounce next year. We see its GDP growth being closer to the long drawn out recoveries we expect in the US and... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Vietnam is back on track and set for strong growth The Vietnamese economy grew rapidly from 1995 to mid-2008 on the back of China-style free market reforms which have lifted exports and foreign investment, and brought a big reduction in poverty levels... 16th September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Two cheers for the DPJ Confirmation of a decisive Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) victory in Sunday’s general election in Japan should provide a further near-term boost to the Nikkei and possibly the yen too, but this... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus A new angle on Chinese growth A little-noticed report published last week by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) gives arguably the best estimate yet of how much China’s economy slowed at the end of last year and how rapidly it has... 7th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus India set to come back strongly India’s 2008-09 slowdown seems to have been a short pause rather than anything more serious. The economy is picking up again and a long period of sustained high GDP growth looks likely. Current... 10th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Korean recovery to follow the West, not Asia While Korea is in much better shape to weather the 2008-09 global crisis than was the case during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, weak external demand and high domestic household indebtedness... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Can China grow by 8% this year? Signs of recovery in China have bolstered confidence that the economy can achieve or beat the government’s target of 8% GDP growth in 2009. But we suspect that China is growing more slowly than the... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Whatever happened to Asian decoupling? It is not too late to rescue something from the decoupling story. The Asian economies – rather than the US or Europe – should recover quickest from the global recession. However, while Japan is likely... 5th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Surging bank loans not enough to save China China’s banks seem to be playing their part in financing the government’s stimulus plans. But the rest of the economic data is bleak. 12th February 2009 · 1 min read
