Asia Economics Focus New forecasts for Emerging Asia as coronavirus spreads There is a huge amount of uncertainty over how things will play out over the coming weeks as the coronavirus crisis continues to unfold, and any forecasts should be taken with more than the usual... 10th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: what to expect from Tsai’s second term and beyond The two key economic challenges facing Tsai Ing-wen in her second and final term as Taiwan’s president are the deteriorating demographic outlook and the long-term decline in productivity growth. A... 13th January 2020 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect in 2020 and how we differ from consensus Growth in Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year. While most economies should stage a modest recovery over the coming quarters on the back of looser fiscal and monetary policy, with China... 19th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Why we don’t trust Indonesia’s GDP data Indonesia’s GDP figures lack credibility – economic growth has been far too stable over the past few years to be believable. We think a better guide to the health of the economy is our own Indonesia... 11th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect from Jokowi 2.0? The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. 15th October 2019 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Interest rate cutting cycle has further to run Weak economic growth and low inflation mean Emerging Asia’s rate cutting cycle has further to run. In contrast, the consensus and financial markets think the easing cycle will soon end in many... 18th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The Great Asian Moderation Emerging Asia has not only been the fastest growing region since the global financial crisis, it has also been the most stable. Regional growth has also been less volatile compared with the period... 14th August 2019 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Winners and losers from the trade war The trade war between the US and China so far appears to have had a small negative impact on most of the region, although some countries, most notably Vietnam, look to be benefiting as US demand has... 26th June 2019 · 17 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Weaker growth is here to stay With productivity slowing and working age populations set to start falling across most of Asia, we expect regional growth to slow to just 3.5% in a decade’s time. This compares with average growth of... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia’s economy one year after election One year on from Mahathir’s shock re-election, the Malaysian prime minister has made some useful progress in tackling corruption, but his decision to eliminate the Goods and Service Tax (GST) and... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Indonesia election unlikely to lead to stronger growth Although neither candidate in Indonesia’s presidential election has unveiled policy proposals that are likely to address the long-standing constraints which are holding back growth, another term for... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Thailand: outlook unlikely to improve after the election Thailand’s upcoming election will do little to improve the economic outlook. Whoever wins, the shift towards economic populism is likely to continue, delaying reforms needed to raise productivity... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Assessing regional “bellwethers” In this Focus, we assess how effective various indicators are for tracking economic growth in the region. The trade volume figures and our proprietary GDP Trackers provide the best guide to the state... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Key calls for 2019, and how we differ from consensus We expect Emerging Asia to grow at its weakest rate in 2019 since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. With inflation also set to drop back, the regional tightening cycle is likely to come to an end... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia: what to make of Mahathir’s first 100 days Following his shock election victory at the start of May, 93-year-old Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has wasted no time in carrying out his main campaign promises. With his first 100 days in office... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Assessing Asia’s vulnerability to a trade war Rising trade tensions between the US and China pose a major threat to the economic outlook for the region. The impact of the measures announced so far by President Trump should be small, and will be... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
