Asia Economics Focus Presidential election a watershed moment for Korea Korea’s presidential election on 9 th March will have major implications for the country’s economic future. A pledge by the ruling DPK’s candidate to introduce a universal basic income could bring... 3rd March 2022 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why is inflation different in Asia? Inflation hasn’t emerged as a concern across Emerging Asia in the same way it has in the rest of the emerging world, in part because food price inflation in Asia is much lower, but also because the... 22nd November 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: the next 30 years Korea has performed relatively well through the pandemic, and we expect the economy to emerge from the crisis with little lasting damage. However, the long-run outlook is less promising. Although... 17th August 2021 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Rate hikes coming in Korea as recovery gathers momentum With the economy rebounding strongly from the crisis, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is starting to shift its attention away from supporting growth and towards containing financial risks. We expect the BoK... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan in the cross hairs Ongoing disruption to global auto production has highlighted the extent to which semiconductors have become an essential input in products that aren’t traditionally considered electronics and also how... 13th April 2021 · 12 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Vietnam: the Party’s plans for the next five years The period covered by the new Five-Year Plan offers Vietnam an opportunity to establish itself as a major export manufacturing hub. Policy priorities will be to improve the business environment so as... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect in 2021 and how we differ from consensus Our forecasts for GDP growth across emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board. Even so, in many places, output will still be below the pre-crisis level until... 16th December 2020 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Thailand: is an appreciating baht a threat to the recovery? Despite renewed concern from policymakers in Thailand over the appreciation of the Thai baht, we find little evidence that the rising currency is having a negative effect on the economy, and we don’t... 30th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Which countries will rebound fastest? The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while economic activity is picking up across most of the region, the pace of recovery varies significantly by country. We expect China, Singapore... 8th June 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Focus New forecasts for Emerging Asia as coronavirus spreads There is a huge amount of uncertainty over how things will play out over the coming weeks as the coronavirus crisis continues to unfold, and any forecasts should be taken with more than the usual... 10th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: what to expect from Tsai’s second term and beyond The two key economic challenges facing Tsai Ing-wen in her second and final term as Taiwan’s president are the deteriorating demographic outlook and the long-term decline in productivity growth. A... 13th January 2020 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect in 2020 and how we differ from consensus Growth in Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year. While most economies should stage a modest recovery over the coming quarters on the back of looser fiscal and monetary policy, with China... 19th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Why we don’t trust Indonesia’s GDP data Indonesia’s GDP figures lack credibility – economic growth has been far too stable over the past few years to be believable. We think a better guide to the health of the economy is our own Indonesia... 11th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect from Jokowi 2.0? The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. 15th October 2019 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Interest rate cutting cycle has further to run Weak economic growth and low inflation mean Emerging Asia’s rate cutting cycle has further to run. In contrast, the consensus and financial markets think the easing cycle will soon end in many... 18th September 2019 · 9 mins read
