Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt restructurings: light at the end of the tunnel? Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings... 17th October 2024 · 21 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Will Indonesia breach its budget deficit limit? The recent rise in public spending and fall in revenues has sent the Indonesian government’s budget deficit veering towards the constitutional 3% of GDP limit. And it’s unclear how the president-elect... 10th July 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The US election and EMs Under a second Trump administration, the imposition of large tariffs on China would hurts its economy but could speed up investment in manufacturing capacity elsewhere. However, a broader global... 28th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: growth to slow, inflation to fall, rates to be cut Korea’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter but there are already signs it is losing momentum, and we expect growth to struggle over the coming year. Export growth is likely to ease a little, but... 18th June 2024 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Why is wage growth in Korea so weak? The recent weakness of wage growth in Korea seems at odds with the country’s low unemployment rate. But a closer look at the data suggests that the unemployment rate is overstating the health of the... 4th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What Trump’s return would mean for EMs All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal... 29th April 2024 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: Global AI spending will drive rapid growth Taiwan will be one of the main beneficiaries of a lengthy global AI investment boom. We expect its economy to growth much faster over the rest of this decade than it did during the 2010s. 9th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM financial risk – An early warning system The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a... 20th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Indonesia after Jokowi Indonesia has some of the best long-term growth prospects of any economy. Key to whether it realises them is whether Indonesia maintains the progress President Joko Widodo (better known as Jokowi) has... 7th February 2024 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Pakistan election: major challenges await next PM The priority for whoever wins Pakistan’s general election on 8 th February will be to agree a new deal with the IMF, which should help put the struggling economy on a more stable footing. But... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Will Thailand’s prospects improve after the election? Provided Thailand’s general election on 14th May does not set off a new round of political unrest and violence, the economy should grow strongly this year. But the long-term outlook is challenging... 8th May 2023 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: recession and rate cuts The near-term economic outlook for Korea is very poor, with falling real incomes, problems in the housing market, and weak global demand all set to weigh on prospects this year. Our forecast is that... 21st February 2023 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Sharp falls in inflation ahead, policymakers turn dovish Inflation looks to have peaked across Emerging Asia, and is likely to fall back more sharply than most analysts expect over the coming year as fuel price inflation drops, the disruption from the... 26th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario... 2nd August 2022 · 23 mins read
