Africa Rapid Response Kenya Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Central Bank of Kenya delivered a surprise 50bp interest rate hike today, to 13.0%, suggesting that the MPC’s inflation fears are outweighing signs that exchange rate pressures are easing. With... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a sharp drop in January as logistics problems and weak demand weighed on activity. We still expect growth to pick up over the course of this year, but this... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Ghana Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Ghana kicked off its easing cycle with a 100bp cut, to 29.00%, today and an improving balance of payments position alongside further falls in inflation mean that more cuts are on the cards... 29th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Interest Rate Announcement The South African Reserve Bank resisted responding to last month’s fall in inflation with an interest rate cut, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. The MPC’s message was little changed... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate fell back further to 5.1% y/y in December but this is unlikely to be enough to convince the Reserve Bank to start an easing cycle tomorrow. 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Nov.) November’s activity data for South Africa show that while economic headwinds are easing, growth is still very soft. Still, less electricity outages and restrictive fiscal policy should allow for a... 18th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to 28.9% y/y in December, as a weak naira continues to push up prices. Aggressive interest rate hikes are long overdue in order to bring inflation under... 15th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to an 11-month high in December, helped by an easing of loadshedding. Alongside hopes that recent freight problems are past the worst, this chimes with our view... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to reach 28.2% y/y in November, as the naira’s weakening continued to pass through. Aggressive interest rate hikes are needed to stabilise tackle... 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Oct.) September’s activity data for South Africa suggest that economy continued to struggle at the start of Q4. But we think that a combination of easing electricity outages and less restrictive fiscal... 13th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate dropped back to a slightly lower-than-expected 5.5% y/y in November, but the fresh rise in core inflation reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank is unlikely... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.2% q/q in Q3 and more timely indicators point to a weak end to 2023, not helped by recent disruptions to the port and freight network. But there are reasons to... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose in November but it still looks like the economy will end 2023 on a weak note. That said, as the drags from loadshedding, high inflation and fiscal austerity ease... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) Nigeria’s economic growth was unchanged at 2.5% y/y in Q3 as a smaller drag from the oil sector offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters, as the... 24th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB stands pat, but hawkish rhetoric remains The South African Reserve Bank opted against responding to last month’s larger-than-expected rise in inflation with an interest rate hike, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. But officials... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.9% y/y in October, is likely to reinforce central bank policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric when they meet tomorrow. Given that... 22nd November 2023 · 3 mins read