Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal issues, Ethiopia finance, Kenya debt Growing concerns about the direction of South Africa’s public finances have caused the yield curve to steepen as risk premia have risen, a trend that may continue as next year’s election approaches... 25th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian FX & cabinet, China woes, BRICS summit Continued naira weakness and fuel price concerns have prompted Nigeria’s government to undertake some short-term fixes that threaten renewed vulnerabilities further down the line. Our concerns about... 18th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira widens, South Africa solar surge, Ghana CPI Two months on from the naira’s devaluation, the gap between Nigeria’s official and black market exchange rates is widening again suggesting that the CBN is once again propping up the naira and that... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria unorthodox remarks, weak South Africa activity Amid signs that the removal of fuel subsidies and devaluation of the naira are weighing on Nigeria’s economy, comments from President Tinubu and potential cabinet members this week reinforced our... 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria and Ghana’s contrasting hikes, Niger’s coup We expect Nigeria’s central bank to follow up its underwhelming 25bp interest rate hike this week, with more aggressive action at the next meeting as inflation should have risen sharply. Still, a... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Food supplies, Nigeria’s iffy price data, Kenya unrest African economies are particularly vulnerable if the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal as well as India’s ban on the export of all non-basmati white rice leads to food supply disruptions. At the... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Loadshedding in SA, Kenya protests, Nigeria policy shift Cold weather in South Africa prompted officials to return to Stage 6 loadshedding this week, threatening a fresh blow to the economy. We doubt that concerns about the inflationary impact of power cuts... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Gauging the possible El Niño impact on Africa The El Niño weather pattern is on its way and threatens to hit agricultural production across much of Africa over the coming months, curtailing GDP growth, pushing up inflation and dealing a fresh... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya restarts tightening, case for a hold in SA builds Kenya’s central bank hiked interest rates by 100bp, to 10.50%, at an unscheduled meeting this week. The move was pinned on an increase in inflation in May, but more than anything it seems to be a... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia debt deal, austerity in Kenya, SARB to hold? This week saw Zambia edge closer to getting a debt restructuring over the line, but an agreement with official creditors suggested that there remain sticking points when it comes to negotiations with... 23rd June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Bola goes big, but big enough? This week’s plunge in the Nigerian naira marked the latest positive step by President Bola Tinubu as he seeks to overhaul the economy, but there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious that this... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA agriculture slump, rand recovers South Africa’s Q1 GDP figures released this week revealed a big drag from the agricultural sector. Some of the factors that weighed on output (namely the weather) are likely to prove temporary but... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tinubu takes first steps, SA power projects progress In a positive early move, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies in his first week in power. But it looks like the fiscal savings will be spent, leaving public debt on an upwards... 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB warns of higher risk premia, Tinubu takes office One new threat to the inflation outlook that the South African Reserve Bank highlighted at its policy meeting on Thursday was a higher country risk premium which is fuelling downward pressure on the... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa and AGOA, Nigeria inflation, Ghana-IMF Allegations that South Africa has supplied arms to Russia has led to calls for the country to lose preferential trade access to the US via the African Growth and Opportunities Act which, while not a... 19th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa entering a perfect storm It’s been a week to forget for South Africa, in which fears emerged that the improvement in the public finances is stalling and concerns about (even more) intense loadshedding surfaced. That was... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
