Africa Economics Weekly SA debt back under review, central banks’ dovish tilt The upcoming Moody’s review of South African debt has raised fresh concerns about a sell-off in the country’s bond market. But we think that these fears are overdone. Meanwhile, central bank meetings... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Slow growth in SA, budget quandaries in Nigeria South African retail sales figures released this week provided another sign of economic weakness, and worsening electricity problems will add to economic headwinds. A new budget report has raised... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Investment slump, power prices prolong Eskom pain Growth figures out this week showed that South Africa’s economy slowed at the end of last year. But we think that improved confidence will boost investment this year, causing growth to pick up. The... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria set for policy stability, renewed risk of Kenya cut Markets surged when Muhammadu Buhari was elected president of Nigeria in 2015, but they slumped following his re-election this week. This is just another sign that investors have soured on the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria actually goes to the polls, South Africa budget History suggests that, if Nigeria’s delayed election on Saturday passes peacefully, the stock market is likely to see a temporary bounce. But over a longer time horizon, global factors are likely to... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria goes to the polls, South Africa awaits budget speech Nigeria’s presidential election on Saturday offers a choice between two clearly distinct policy options. The result will be close, with the winner probably announced on Monday. Elsewhere, South Africa... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Eskom reforms, EFF manifesto, Nigeria faces crucial election South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s plan to split Eskom into three is a welcome sign that Pretoria is willing to consider serious, structural reforms to the troubled electricity utility. Fiscal... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan rates will remain on hold, but cuts elsewhere Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate unchanged this week, and we think that they will hold rates over the remainder of the year. Peers in Angola and Ghana – who cut this week – will probably... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya debt increases fragilities, SA inflation supports dovish view Given Kenya’s fragile external position, plans for more foreign currency debt will increase the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks. Policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria showed no sign... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB turns dovish, Nigerian opposition flip-flops on reforms Policymakers in South Africa toned down their hawkish language at their meeting this week, suggesting that rate hikes are now off the agenda. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s leading opposition politician laid... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Robust growth in South Africa, coup foiled in Gabon South African output data released this week suggested that the economy slowed a touch in Q4. Even so, growth was still pretty strong by recent standards. Elsewhere, a coup attempt in Gabon revived... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Strong growth in Kenya, MTN settles in Nigeria Figures released in Kenya this week have strengthened our view that the country will be one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies of 2019. Meanwhile, the settlement between South African telecoms... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari’s budget, Nigerian bank consolidation, Ghana GDP Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari laid out his 2019 budget proposal this week, emphasising that he plans to keep key policies unchanged if he is re-elected in February. A big bank merger in the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to the IMF, Nigeria stuck in first gear Angola’s $3.7bn deal with the IMF adds to the evidence that President João Lourenço is making a real shift towards more orthodox policymaking and while growth will stay weak in the near-term, economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly MTN dispute underlines Nigeria’s difficult business environment An opaque out-of-court settlement between Nigeria’s government and MTN would do little to improve perceptions of the country’s business environment. Elsewhere; South Africa’s economy returned to... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
