Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique debts: The end of the beginning? Mozambique’s government and its bondholders edged towards a restructuring deal this week. While an agreement would not solve the government’s debt problems, it would be a big step forward. Elsewhere... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. African inflation eases, Buhari (finally) names a cabinet South African inflation slipped to 4.0% y/y in July, suggesting to us that policymakers will cut their key rate to 6.25% in September. Risks to this view are, admittedly, growing. After delaying for... 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly More ‘Buharinomics’, signs of Q2 rebound in Nigeria, SA Despite fears to the contrary, calls this week by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari to tighten restrictions on access to foreign currency are likely to have little effect on inflation. But they... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Could weak ZAR, Q2 recovery keep SA rates on hold? The rand’s recent weakness against the US dollar is mostly due to domestic factors – like problems at Eskom – rather than general EM fears about the US-China trade war. Currency weakness has increased... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A look under Eskom’s hood, factory sentiment up Eskom’s latest annual report highlights that the firm’s woes run deeper than poor management and, until it is allowed to raise electricity tariffs significantly, the state will need to continue... 2nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Eskom bailout, Kganyago sounds hawkish, CBN on hold This week’s Eskom rescue package didn’t go far enough to meaningfully address the firm’s problems, but was expensive enough to increase the risk of a sovereign debt downgrade in November. SARB... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa rebound, rate cuts, Zambia bond rally Policymakers in South Africa reduced their key rate by 25bp this week, and we think that they will cut again later this year. Central banks in Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana will probably join in on the... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kganyago reappointed, rate cut likely next week The re-appointment of South Africa’s respected central bank governor will help to allay fears concerning the independence of the Reserve Bank. We think that policymakers will cut their policy rate... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari warms on trade, Ramaphosa plans Eskom rescue Nigeria’s usually mercantilist government seemed more open to regional integration this week. But while Abuja’s decision to join the AfCFTA trade pact is positive, plans for a West African common... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Sino-Africa trade, Ethiopia crisis, weak investment in SA African leaders visiting China for a trade expo this week are sure to praise their ties with Beijing, but several big Chinese-funded infrastructure projects in the region are being delayed or... 28th June 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Easing cycle gains momentum, no news from SONA Inflation figures released in South Africa and Nigeria this week supported our view that policymakers in both countries will loosen monetary policy later this year. Rates elsewhere are already falling... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rumours, South Africa recovery, Ethiopia reforms Despite this week’s mixed messages from Nigerian officials, we doubt that the country’s FX system will be reformed anytime soon. In South Africa, the latest activity data suggest that the economy... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Confusion in South Africa, debt deal in Mozambique A political dispute over the mandate of South Africa’s Reserve Bank caused the rand to weaken this week. We doubt that the bank’s charter will be changed, but the row highlights intra-ANC divisions... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP slump & rate cuts, inflation drop vindicates CBK Dovish comments from the South African Reserve Bank this week support our view that an interest rate cut is likely to come as soon as July. Elsewhere, the drop in Kenyan inflation in May backed up the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Rate cuts just around the corner in SA and Nigeria Central banks in South Africa and Nigeria left policy settings unchanged at their meetings this week but the accompanying communications supported our long-held view that interest rates will be cut... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa stumbles, Unemployment rises, Kenya bond sale Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2% in Q1. Figures out next week, by contrast, will probably show that growth accelerated in Nigeria... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read