Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian prices jump, CFA rumours overdone Nigerian inflation figures released this week supported our view that border closures are pushing up prices in the country. We expect that this will prompt policymakers to delay interest rate cuts... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa falters in Q4, SSA oil production tumbles Grim output data for October and widespread power cuts added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q4. Even if the country does dodge a recession, recent weakness suggests... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa falters, Nigeria FX bans fail, Kenya rail troubles As we’d expected, figures out this week showed that South Africa’s economy contracted sharply in Q3. Early signs are that conditions remained difficult in Q4, raising the risk of another technical... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian rates on hold, Kenya cuts, SAA losing altitude Monetary policymakers in Nigeria and Ghana kept their key rates on hold this week, while their Kenyan peers loosened policy. We expect that the next move in all three countries will be a cut... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian weakness, Dovish SARB, big Zambian rate hike Figures released this week added to the evidence that Nigeria’s economy continued to falter in the second half of this year. South African policymakers sounded dovish at their latest MPC meeting, but... 22nd November 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Another swing in SA output, Kwanza stable, Fiscal splurges The latest South African activity figures added to evidence that the economy contracted again in Q3. Meanwhile, Angola’s recession is likely to be prolonged into 2020 given the currency’s falls this... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Weakness in SA, Kwanza finds its feet, Kenya rate cap cut This week’s South African activity data added to the evidence that the economy faltered in Q3. We’ll know more when retail and mining figures are published next week, but there is an underappreciated... 8th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Moody’s outlook fears, Kwanza collapse, Springboks! Moody’s is likely to adopt a ‘negative’ outlook on South Africa’s local currency debt rating later today, paving the way for a downgrade to ‘junk’ status. The review comes days after the government... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola shifts to float kwanza, SA opposition cracks Angolan policymakers abandoned their currency trading band this week, suggesting that they are getting serious about reforming the FX system. The official exchange rate has fallen sharply in recent... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria flirts with autarky, South Africa slows The Nigerian government’s decision to ban all trade across the country’s land borders on Tuesday will only have a small macroeconomic impact, but it highlights the worrying shift towards more... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget, more weakness in SA, Uganda rate cut Nigeria’s president announced his draft budget this week, the first time in several years that the document has been published in Q3. This raises the possibility that lawmakers will be able to pass it... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN ups pressure on banks, ANC balks at reforms The Central Bank of Nigeria increased pressure on commercial banks to extend more loans this week, but we doubt that the new targets will have much effect. Elsewhere, South African leaders seem to be... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Dovish tone in Kenya, fiscal woes in Nigeria Kenyan policymakers held their key interest rate at 9.00% earlier this week, but dovish commentary strengthened our view that they will loosen policy next year. Nigeria’s central bank governor, by... 27th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rates on hold, but cuts coming in Ghana & Nigeria Policymakers in South Africa, Nigeria and Ghana sang from the same hymn sheet this week by maintaining their key rates on hold. While we think that the window for monetary easing has now closed in... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s oil pledge, South Africa to cut rates Nigeria’s pledge this week to fully comply with its OPEC quota by lowering production levels would, if implemented, reduce GDP growth significantly. But given the country’s poor track record, we’re... 13th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mixed Q2 GDP, weak PMIs, but optimism from Eskom GDP figures from the region’s two biggest economies painted a mixed picture. While growth in Nigeria slowed a touch, the rebound in South Africa was stronger than we had expected. Even so, we think... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read