Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we roll out our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. The pandemic has increased debt burdens across the continent and, with... 21st March 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA budget shows healthier public finances… for now Today’s budget showed that South Africa’s public finances are in a better-than-expected shape but the path to stabilise the debt ratio remains narrow. Mounting pressures to provide more fiscal support... 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SONA: Ramaphosa shies from letting off the fireworks South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed to press ahead with his signature reform drive to boost the economy in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address, but most initiatives will take time to... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery switching to an even slower lane Timely activity data suggest that, over Q4 as a whole, Nigeria’s economy came close to a standstill. The weak economic backdrop is likely to prevent the CBN from raising interest rates in the coming... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices to turn into headwind Our downbeat view that most commodity prices will fall back by year-end is largely negative for economies across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Zambia and Angola likely to be hardest hit, although some net... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB continues its dovish tightening cycle The South African Reserve Bank pressed ahead with its tightening cycle by raising the repo rate from 3.75% to 4.00% today as policymakers’ concerns about upside inflation risks and the global monetary... 27th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN remains fixated on supporting the recovery The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today as it shrugged off the unexpected rise in inflation in December and maintained its focus on supporting the recovery... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022 Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a laggard in the global recovery. The weak economic backdrop means that South Africa’s government is unlikely to stick to its austerity plans and the debt ratio will... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update The latest on South Africa’s Omicron experience The recent sharp fall in virus cases in South Africa provides an early encouraging sign that Omicron-driven outbreaks may run their course relatively quickly. In South Africa’s case, the health system... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Omicron lessons from South Africa South Africa’s experience with Omicron so far offers tentative hope to other economies since it hasn’t pushed up the incidence of very severe illness in the same way that the Delta wave did. The... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery losing some steam Timely activity figures suggest that Nigeria’s economy lost momentum in early Q4 as oil sector woes continued and the non-oil economy’s recovery slowed. Headwinds have only built since. 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Debt sustainability in Zambia: mission impossible? Zambia’s new administration has made encouraging noises about restoring macroeconomic stability and addressing the country’s public debt problem. But it will be a tall order to secure a large... 2nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update We anticipate that the rand will remain weak The South African rand has rallied over the past few days after reaching its lowest level against the US dollar in more than a year following last week’s news about the Omicron variant. Even if the... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN maintains interest rates, but hints at policy shift The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today, but the statement signalled that monetary policy normalisation is now on the horizon. While we don’t expect interest rates... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB: lift-off for rates, but tightening cycle to be slow The South African Reserve Bank fired the starting gun on monetary policy normalisation with a 25bp hike in the repo rate, to 3.75%, today amidst growing concerns about inflation risks. But the... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA’s MTBPS: sticking with austerity… for now Today’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in South Africa signalled that the government is broadly sticking with its fiscal consolidation plans. But with growing pressures to ramp up social... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
