Africa Economics Update SARB slams on the monetary policy brakes South Africa’s central bank upped the pace of tightening further with a 75bp hike, to 5.50%, as policymakers’ intensifying fears about inflation (and inflation expectations) trumped any concerns about... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Inflation fight in centre stage at CBN The Central Bank of Nigeria followed up May’s 150bp interest rate hike with a 100bp increase in the benchmark rate today, to 14.00%, as worries about inflation continued to mount. We now expect a 50bp... 19th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana and the IMF: big hurdles to debt sustainability The decision by Ghana’s government to turn to the IMF will help to restore some calm among investors over the country’s poor public finances. But a very large fiscal squeeze is needed to restore debt... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Loadshedding and the hit to South Africa’s economy If past experience is anything to go by, deepening electricity supply cuts in South Africa are likely to deal a heavy blow to activity in energy-intensive sectors such as mining and manufacturing... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Where next for inflation in South Africa? Inflation in South Africa has been close to the top of the central bank’s target range in recent months, but the country has avoided the surge in inflation seen across much of the world. And there are... 21st June 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Signs of Nigeria’s recovery decelerating further The latest data from Nigeria suggest that the economic rebound slowed further at the start of Q2, and we think that the recovery will remain lacklustre over the coming quarters. The weakness of the... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Tanzania: near-term struggles, long-term outlook brighter Unfavourable shifts in commodity prices, the effects of drought and a slow rebound in the tourism sector will hold back Tanzania’s economy over the next couple of years. But while the near-term... 6th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update War in Ukraine inflames food insecurity in Africa The outsize role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan African economies and the tendency to rely on imported food products makes the region particularly vulnerable to the agricultural shock caused by the war... 25th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN finally steps up to curb inflation The Central Bank of Nigeria delivered a surprise 150bp interest rate hike, to 13.00%, today amid mounting inflation and balance of payments concerns. We expect rates to be raised by another 100bp, to... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Hawks’ majority in SARB to be short-lived Policymakers in South Africa upped the pace of tightening today, raising the repo rate by 50bp to 4.75%, as concerns about inflation (and inflation expectations in particular) have grown. We don’t... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update A primer on South Africa’s monetary policy reform The South African Reserve Bank is set to shake up its monetary policy setup. This Update provides some clarity on what policymakers will do and why, and what it means for monetary and credit... 11th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB will continue to tighten slowly South Africa’s headline inflation rate will stay close to the upper bound of the central bank’s 3-6% target range in the coming months before falling sharply in the second half of the year. Some MPC... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s policy tightening to hold back recovery Ghana’s economic recovery will remain sluggish over the next couple of years as policy is tightened in a bid to shore up the public finances and tackle high inflation. The risk of an imminent... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery picks up but FX policies start to bite The latest data from Nigeria suggest that the economy strengthened at the start of this year. But there are growing signs that the central bank’s draconian foreign exchange policies are leading to... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB continues to tighten, hawks gaining ground The upside inflation risks created by the war in Ukraine and the solid performance of South Africa’s economy prompted the Reserve Bank to push ahead with its tightening cycle today, raising the repo... 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update War in Ukraine exacerbates external pressures Shifts in commodity prices in response to the war in Ukraine will provide a sizeable boost to current account positions in Angola and (to a lesser extent) Nigeria this year. Elsewhere, however, higher... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
