FX Markets Update We think the rand’s rally will prove short-lived Despite its strength this month, we think the headwinds facing the South African rand remain in place and expect it to reach fresh lows against the US dollar through the middle of next year. In view... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN shifting in less hawkish direction The Central Bank of Nigeria raised the benchmark rate by 100bp, to 16.50%, today, and MPC members appear to be itching to take their foot off the monetary policy brakes. But we suspect that the... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s economy heading from bad to worse Nigeria’s demonetisation efforts are likely to add to already-high economic costs of the country’s unorthodox policies. The resulting currency falls will fuel inflation further and disruptions to... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria and the risks stemming from demonetisation The Nigerian central bank’s plans to replace high-value bank notes by the end of January will, if India’s experience in 2016 is anything to go by, disrupt activity and fail to address some of the... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: public finances in better health, but slippage likely South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement published today showed that the government hasn’t (yet) been tempted to spend the windfall from the improvement in the public finances this year. And... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: sharp slowdown, debt restructuring on the cards Ghana’s economy held up well in the first half of this year but high and rising inflation, combined with monetary and fiscal tightening, means that a sharp slowdown is on the cards. Talks with the IMF... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Rising inflation, weak naira push CBN into large hike The Central Bank of Nigeria upped the pace of its tightening cycle today, increasing the benchmark rate by 150bp, to 15.50%, as officials have become increasingly concerned about sky-high inflation... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Economic pain mounting in Nigeria The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that economic pain is mounting under the weight of troubles in the key oil sector as well as the country’s unorthodox FX policies. With little reprieve on the... 23rd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Hawkish majority to rule the SARB for some time Today’s decision in South Africa to raise the benchmark rate by 75bp, to 6.25%, despite weakness in the economy suggests that policymakers are prioritising tackling inflation above all else. We think... 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Zambia’s return to debt sustainability still elusive One year into Hakainde Hichilema’s presidency, Zambia has taken key steps on the path out of a sovereign default, including securing an IMF deal this month. But with debt restructuring talks yet to... 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Angola: elections won’t prevent return to slow growth Angola’s elections on Wednesday may be more competitive than ever before, but the ruling party’s decades-long hold on power is unlikely to come to an end. Assuming President Lourenço secures another... 23rd August 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery looking bleak The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that GDP growth weakened further in Q2. Ongoing production problems in the oil sector will drag on growth in the coming year and, while that is likely to be... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: elections no cure for economic woes Kenya’s general election scheduled for Tuesday is set against a challenging economic backdrop, and no matter the winner, the country’s outlook is likely to remain overshadowed by large macroeconomic... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
