Africa Economics Update South African Reserve Bank faces difficult balancing act Concerns over the effects of a weakening rand on inflation will continue to leave the South African Reserve Bank with little room to loosen policy in order to support growth over the coming months. 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Room for relatively small rate cuts in Nigeria Slowing inflation and sub-trend growth in Nigeria mean that interest rate cuts are likely this year, but concerns over fiscal profligacy and a weakening currency limits the room for significant easing... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Solid but unspectacular outlook for South African retail sector Growth in South African retail sales beat consensus expectations in November. But with consumer confidence falling due to rising inflation and fears over job security, the outlook for private... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI slumps again The slump in South Africa’s PMI reading for December indicates that the manufacturing sector continued to feel the effects of weak demand from key export destinations, as well as constraints in the... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: another tough year ahead South African markets have enjoyed a stellar start to 2013. Equities have surged to new record highs, while bond markets have shrugged off recent ratings downgrades. But while the markets have rallied... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rates unlikely to fall much further The Central Bank of Kenya’s larger-than-expected 150bp rate cut to 9.50% today suggests that the easing cycle may not yet be at an end, but with inflation close to bottoming out, growth now picking up... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Regional growth holding up relatively well A slew of GDP data released since the Christmas period show that growth in a number of sub-Saharan Africa’s smaller economies slowed in the second half of 2012, but nevertheless confirm that the... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Further weakness ahead for Kenyan shilling The Kenyan shilling slipped to a seven-month low against the US$ this morning and we think that growing domestic political risk in the run-up to elections in March, coupled with a large current... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Big shifts in monetary policy unlikely in the first half of 2013 A combination of renewed optimism over the state of the global economy and an acceleration in regional inflation suggests that the interest rate cuts that had looked imminent in some parts of sub... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What to expect from the ANC Elective Conference News that South Africa’s deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe will challenge incumbent president Jacob Zuma for the leadership of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has added an extra layer of... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: a weak start to Q4 A slew of data released this morning indicate that after slowing sharply in Q3, the South African economy got off to a poor start in Q4. But with inflation likely to accelerate further in the coming... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: incumbent victory reinforces positive outlook Allegations of vote rigging have clouded the general election in Ghana, but these shouldn’t undermine the overall positive impact that victory for incumbent president John Dramani Mahama should... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa's current account deficit still a concern South Africa’s current account deficit was not as wide as expected in Q3, but the fact that it is being funded in large part by portfolio inflows means that external financing risks persist. The... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ugandan easing cycle has probably ended The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate today for the ninth time this year but, with inflation ticking up and the shilling having depreciated in recent weeks, we think the rate cutting... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing remains weak The small uptick in the South African manufacturing PMI in November suggests that the sector willnarrowly avoid a contraction in output in Q4, but does little to change the underlying picture of... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana elections unlikely to prompt shift in policy direction The final presidential debate before elections in Ghana next month revealed that neither of the two main candidates are likely to oversee a radical shift away from market-friendly policies... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
