Africa Economics Update Africa: Trade agreement promising, but no immediate impact Media coverage of Africa’s “Tripartite Free Trade Agreement” has exaggerated the pact’s effect on economic integration, which will be limited by piecemeal implementation and crumbling infrastructure... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya hikes rates to shore up shilling Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee hiked its key interest rate by 150bps today, a clear attempt to signal that the bank is serious about curbing high inflation and protecting the rapidly-depreciating... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: faltering tourism sector deals blow to economy Declining tourist numbers pose yet another threat to South Africa’s already beleaguered economy. And the impact of onerous new visa regulations are likely to make the situation even worse. 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: shilling weakness no cause for panic The recent weakness of the Kenyan shilling is not, as some local media has alleged, the first sign of an impending balance of payments crisis. The shilling will probably continue to depreciate, but... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Gabon: Low oil prices pose lasting economic challenge Growth in oil-rich Gabon is highly dependent on government spending, and low oil prices are causing a painful fiscal crunch that is dampening economic activity. Faltering economic expansion will... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: how to judge a Buhari presidency The inauguration of President Muhammadu Buhari this morning was met with widespread optimism in Nigeria, but the 72-year old must act quickly if he is to retain the political momentum and make serious... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets shrug off weak economic news South Africa’s rand rallied over the past month, despite a string of weak economic data suggesting that growth is slowing and inflation is picking up. Nigeria’s naira held steady, but yields on the... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa edges closer to rate hike The decision by South Africa’s MPC to hold the repo rate at 5.75% was accompanied by a statement that clearly paved the way for rate hikes over the coming months. We have pencilled in a 25bp rate hike... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Retail figures point to weak first quarter for South Africa Figures released today showed that South Africa’s retail sector faltered in March, supporting our view that GDP growth in the first quarter was a disappointing 2.0% in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian central bank plays down case for tightening The Nigerian Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to leave its key interest rate at 13% at today’s meeting was not a surprise, but Governor Godwin Emefiele’s comments at the post-meeting press... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: poor corn harvest poses little inflation risk 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: surprise hike probably result of IMF pressure The Bank of Ghana justified its surprise decision to hike its policy interest rate, from 21% to 22%, today by pointing to elevated inflation, although we think that pressure from the IMF also played a... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: why oil prices have provided little support for shilling Lower oil prices should have reduced Kenya’s wide trade deficit and taken some of the pressure off the struggling Kenyan shilling, but the currency was Sub-Saharan Africa’s worst-performing last month... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, hike likely later this year Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but the Committee’s increasingly hawkish tone leads us to believe that rate hikes will come in late 2015... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria 2015 budget: looking behind the numbers Falling oil revenue will cause Nigeria’s fiscal deficit to widen in 2015, but we do not expect the shortfall to exceed 2% of GDP. Despite talk of tightening fiscal policy, federal government spending... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Borrowing no substitute for reform in Angola The Angolan government’s attempt to use external borrowing to plug the country’s twin fiscal and current account shortfalls opened by low oil prices is, at best, a temporary measure. This will... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read