Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Praiseworthy reform prompts embarrassing own goal The creation of a Treasury Single Account for Nigeria’s federal government is a sensible step, but poor implementation has sparked an entirely avoidable liquidity freeze. While the Central Bank has... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: New sales figures, same grim story Statistics South Africa has updated its calculations of retail sales figures, but the new data still paint a pretty miserable picture. Our GDP tracker suggests that the South African economy stagnated... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana hikes rates amid currency concerns The surprise 100bp rate hike, to 25.0%, by the Bank of Ghana today appears to have been aimed at shoring up the cedi, particularly in light of the US FOMC meeting later this week. We expect monetary... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: Problems under the hood Planned mine closures will deal a heavy blow to Zambia’s copper-dependent economy. But the country’s economic problems run deeper than the current fall in copper prices. We expect that the country... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Index exclusion another symbolic blow The expulsion of Nigeria from JPMorgan’s GBI-EM bond index will have little practical impact on Africa’s largest economy. But the move is an embarrassing blow to the Nigerian government’s economic... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s much-touted “rise” stalls in 2015 A combination of low commodity prices and domestic weaknesses will drag growth in Sub-Saharan Africa down to around 3.3% this year, a very grim figure for a region often touted as the “next China”. 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Cost of Nigerian FX restrictions becoming increasingly clear On the face of it, Nigeria’s restrictions on access to foreign currency have been quite successful at stabilising the naira and the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves. However, the adverse... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update China, domestic woes weigh on African markets African financial markets performed poorly over the past month due to acombination of domestic economic problems and deteriorating investor sentimenttowards emerging markets on the back of worries... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Structural issues, not oil prices, drag down growth Yesterday’s Nigerian GDP figures showed that the country’s economy slowed even more sharply than weexpected in the second quarter. While low oil prices have battered the economy, the recent figures... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil not the only worry Nigeria’s economy has struggled this year, with the most obvious cause being the recent collapse of global oil prices. But this isn’t the only obstacle to faster growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Defending currencies ultimately futile Many African central banks are running down scarce foreign exchange reserves in a doomed effort to defend overvalued currencies from painful adjustments. But with commodity prices likely to remain... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ugandan rate hike adds to African tightening cycle The Bank of Uganda’s decision to hike interest rates by another 150bp today was an effort to support the flagging currency. The hike is yet another example of Sub-Saharan Africa’s escalating... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rate hold does not signify end of tightening cycle Today’s decision by the Kenyan MPC to leave interest rates at 11.50% will give the economy a bit of breathing room, but we still expect that currency weakness will lead the CBK to hike rates to 13.00%... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: The dangers of ‘feed bottle federalism’ The slowly-unfolding budgetary crisis affecting Nigeria’s 36 state-level governments poses some risk to the central governmnet’s fiscal health. But, more importantly, it also exemplifies the flaws in... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Government audit puts focus on corruption An audit of government expenditure provides yet more evidence of widespread corruption in Kenya. But while the new findings make for grim reading, the existence of the report – and others like it – is... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: New Eurobond raises regional debt concerns The high yield demanded for Zambia’s recent Eurobond is not just a sign of that country’s deteriorating fiscal position. Market sentiment towards Sub-Saharan African government debt seems to be... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
