Africa Economics Update South Africa: Political risk adds to economic headwinds A legal case against President Jacob Zuma may further destabilise South Africa’s already febrile political situation. Increased political risk poses a very real threat to the country’s struggling... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Adjusting to life in the slow lane The latest data and surveys from South Africa have been even worse than we had expected, and we have downgraded our 2016 growth forecast to a below-consensus 0.5%. A prolonged period of slow growth... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Loan rumours leave key questions unanswered A reported US$3.5bn loan from the World Bank and AfDB would only cover about 15% of Nigeria’s gross external financing requirement. In any case, a loan would come with politically difficult conditions... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian markets suffer as economy falters The latest drop in oil prices, combined with Abuja’s unorthodox economic policies, sent Nigeria’s financial markets into a tailspin this month. Financial markets elsewhere on the continent also... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates hiked as economic outlook deteriorates The South African Reserve Bank has raised its key interest rate from 6.25% to 6.75% as inflation concerns outweighed worries about weak growth. We expect the bank will be forced to hike by another... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele vows “unyielding” defence of naira Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Godwin Emefiele used the post-MPC meeting press conference to reiterate his commitment to retaining controversial FX restrictions. But with strains in the balance of... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold despite higher inflation While the Central Bank of Kenya held rates on hold today, we expect that the Bank will be forced to tighten policy by around 50bp later this year as inflation remains above target. 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales surprise, but outlook still grim November’s surprisingly buoyant retail sales figures provide a rare piece of good news for South Africa’s struggling economy. But we expect that rising inflation and tightening monetary policy will... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policy response pushes economy towards crisis Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy. But it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis. 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel subsidy issue still unresolved Reports of the end of Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy scheme are greatly exaggerated. We expect that fuel distributors will require another costly bailout in 2016, which will add to Nigeria’s wide... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rate hike still likely, despite weak output data South African mining output did not contract as sharply as was predicted in November, but the weakness of the economy will still put pressure on the SARB to slow its hiking cycle. Even so, with the... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African currencies: Key calls for 2016 In this Watch we outline our key views on African currencies in 2016. First, we expect that both the Angolan kwanza and Nigerian naira will be devalued. Second, we expect that the rand will weaken... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Devaluation inevitable, delays only lengthen the pain Nigeria’s cumbersome FX restrictions are strangling economic growth in the country, and are unsustainable given growing pressure on the naira. We expect that the authorities will be forced to devalue... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: 2016 budget looks too ambitious Nigeria’s 2016 budget, presented to parliament yesterday, relies on overly optimistic economic assumptions, although at least the focus on raising capital spending marks a welcome change. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa suffers as SSA closes very weak year The South African currency and local equities plunged in December when a botched cabinet reshuffle by President Jacob Zuma caused investors to question the country’s governance. The self-induced... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Corruption revelations could signal improved oversight Widespread corruption has long impeded economic growth in Kenya. But while a recent wave of scandals has demoralised some, we believe that the frequent revelation of government malfeasance is a... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
