Africa Economics Update Nigerian banks set to weather naira devaluation The large falls in Nigeria’s currency will push inflation up even further and is one reason behind our below consensus near-term GDP growth forecasts. But the good news is that the banking sector... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: public finances worsen ahead of MTBPS The continued deterioration in South Africa’s budget position in recent months leaves Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana facing an uphill challenge to reassure investors at November’s Medium Term... 12th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: inflation, debt risks to hold back rate cuts Sub-Saharan African central banks are unlikely to follow their peers in other EMs in cutting interest rates soon. With inflation falling more slowly, alongside balance of payment and public debt... 5th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Gains from Nigeria’s policy shift at risk of evaporating Nigeria’s policy shift has stalled in recent weeks as officials have responded to a growing political backlash by reverting to the interventionist tendencies of the Buhari administration. The result... 28th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds and maintains hawkish rhetoric The South African Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold today at 8.25% and continued to emphasise that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, suggesting that it is in no rush to begin... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Signs of scarring in South Africa’s labour market South Africa’s unemployment rate has dropped back over the past year or so but it remains far above its pre-pandemic level. The rise in long-term unemployment, which has its roots in both cyclical and... 14th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think EMEA equities will continue to be a mixed bag Equities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have returned little in US$ terms so far this year. While they may fare better next year, we doubt they’ll outperform the wider emerging equity... 29th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s slow tourism recovery sustains external strains Sub-Saharan Africa’s tourism industry has recovered slowly from the pandemic, albeit with significant variation in performance across the continent. Signs that the tourism outlook is weakening risk... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update China, Africa and lengthy debt talks China’s prominence as a creditor to African economies goes a long way to explaining the slower speed of debt restructuring negotiations in Zambia, in contrast to Ghana, following their respective... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kwanza slump adds to clouds over Angola’s outlook Angola’s recent 40% devaluation of the kwanza will add to inflation pressures and prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy aggressively, all of which will weigh on near-term growth. The... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update What would make the SARB hike again? Policymakers at the South African Reserve Bank are keen to emphasise that their work to tame the “inflation monster” is not over, leaving open the possibility of additional monetary tightening. The... 27th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The further fall in inflation in June, coupled with signs of economic weakness and a decline in risk premia, prompted the South African Reserve Bank to leave its repo rate at 8.25%, bringing this... 20th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: policy shift already weighing on activity The blow to Nigeria’s economy from a failed demonetisation exercise is fading but there are already signs that the inflationary effects of the devaluation of the naira and removal of fuel subsidies... 18th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s budget position starting to deteriorate The sharp improvement in South Africa’s budget in recent years has started to reverse. And this trend is set to continue as austerity is eased ahead of the 2024 election and revenues fall short of... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
