Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira ‘reforms’ take centre stage Hints of a devaluation have led to confusion over the direction of Nigerian FX policy. Political uncertainty and fears of a ratings downgrade left South African rand as the worst performing EM... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Analysing President Buhari’s first year The fall in global oil prices made an economic slowdown in Nigeria inevitable. But the country’s current crisis is largely self-inflicted. Government policy has made a bad situation much worse. 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN finally admits need for flexibility The Central Bank of Nigeria finally admitted at its MPC meeting today that its inflexible “strong naira” policy has failed. The move towards a more flexible exchange rate system is a positive step. We... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Surprise rate cut sign of reduced inflation risk The Central Bank of Kenya’s 100bp rate cut (from 11.50% to 10.50%) signals that the Bank believes that inflation is well-anchored. The wide current account deficit will limit the scope for further... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A pause in the tightening cycle Today’s decision to hold rates at 7.00% is only a pause in the SARB’s tightening cycle; we still expect at least two rate hikes later this year. The MPC statement supported our very downbeat view of... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak economy will prompt SARB pause Lower-than-expected inflation and retail sales will probably lead the SARB to leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. Output data suggest that South Africa narrowly avoided a fall in GDP in Q1. 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil disruptions add to economic woes The sharp fall in Nigeria’s oil production could, if sustained, shave more than 1%-pt off GDP growth this year. Lower oil output will also add to the country’s fiscal and current account problems. 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: FX comments, fuel price hikes offer hints of reform The vice president’s comments regarding a possible change to Nigeria’s currency regime suggest that policy elites may not be as opposed to a devaluation as many believe. Claims that Nigeria’s fuel... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Very weak showing in key sectors Declining output from the manufacturing and mining sectors underscore the weakness of South Africa’s economy. Given today’s grim figures – and the recent jump in unemployment – we expect that the SARB... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Economic shock not over yet GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa slowed to a 16-year low in 2015, but the adjustment to low commodity prices is far from over. We expect even weaker growth in 2016. 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rising unemployment adds to political risk The rise of unemployment to a 12-year high is another grim milestone for South Africa. And with municipal elections coming up in August, today’s data may embolden populist figures hoping to capitalise... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rising debt adds to economic vulnerabilities Kenya’s high public debt should stabilise as a share of GDP if – as we expect – growth stays strong. But a sharp slowdown or a run on the currency could easily put the debt ratio on an unsustainbale... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Collapse of capital inflows a big blow to economy The flow of foreign capital into Nigeria has slowed to a trickle. This will exacerbate the country’s serious balance of payment problems and further depress investment in an economy that is starved of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Currencies gain, but Mozambique struggles The performance of African markets was mixed this month. Currencies in most major economies strengthened, but Mozambique’s ongoing debt scandal has caused US dollar debt yields there to jump. 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Mining figures suggest weak Q1 GDP growth Today’s mining figures are a sobering reminder of the weakness of one of South Africa’s key industries. Our GDP tracker suggests that growth remained positive, albeit very weak, in Q1. 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Buhari’s Beijing deal overblown Media reports have overstated importance of the deals signed this week between Nigeria and China. The announced deals provide little support for Nigeria’s ailing economy. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
