Africa Economics Update South Africa: Q2 rebound not a sign of things to come After contracting sharply in Q1, South Africa’s economy has bounced back faster than many – including ourselves – had suspected. Growth will probably pick up a bit next year, but we suspect that South... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: MPC Statement hints tightening cycle complete Today’s statement from the South African Monetary Policy Committee suggests that rates in the country are no longer likely to be hiked later this year. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN ignores government, maintains tight policy The MPC’s decision to hold rates at 14.00%, thus rebuffing government calls for looser interest rates is an encouraging sign of the bank’s independence. We expect that rates will have to rise later... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Early signs point to deepening contraction in Q3 Activity data for July and August suggest that the economic situation in Nigeria deteriorated going into the third quarter. The economy will probably continue to contract over the duration of 2016. 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African economy losing steam in Q3 Output figures for July suggest that South Africa’s economy weakened a bit at the beginning of Q3. This supports our view that strong growth in Q2 was a brief rebound, not the beginning of a lasting... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Eurobond provides boost to confidence in fragile economy The successful launch of Ghana’s fifth Eurobond is a sign of the markets’ growing confidence in the country. While the economy remains fragile, we expect that the worst is now behind us. 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output falters at start of Q3 The first Q3 South African output data support our view that the rapid growth reported in Q2 is unlikely to be sustained. The economy may post positive growth in 2016 as a whole, but only marginally. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy plunges into broad-based recession The contraction of Nigerian GDP in Q2 was driven by a sharp fall in oil output, but the data shows that other sectors of the economy are also suffering. Economy policy has made a bad situation worse. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Political risk spook investors Political risk has roiled the markets in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya over the past month. Tensions within South Africa’s cabinet, which pose a risk to the country’s already fragile economy... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Japan’s role will remain limited This week’s high-profile Japan-Africa summit will not change the fact that Tokyo remains a relatively minor player in Africa. In some areas, however, Japan will continue to play a significant role. 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales data point to Q2 rebound The statement accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today, at which the policy rate was left on hold at 0.90%, gave no sign that monetary easing is on the Council’s agenda. But we think... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia faces a painful period of post-election austerity Zambia’s disputed election has raised the risk of a period of political uncertainty, but with the vote out of the way, we think that it’s now likely that the government will agree to a long-delayed... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Latest data suggests economy dodged recession June’s manufacturing and mining figures support our view that the South African economy expanded by about 1.5% q/q (saar) in Q2, thus avoiding a technical recession. We still expect that the economy... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Inflation headed down as economic imbalances unwind The sharp fall in Ghanaian inflation supports our view that the worst is over for Ghana’s economy. Thegradual reduction of economic imbalances will help inflation moderate over the coming months. 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Gradual recovery after a painful adjustment Economic growth in Angola is grinding to a halt as the economy adjusts to lower oil prices. Growth will recover in 2017 and 2018, but more gradually than most expect. 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: Debt worries are overblown The revelation that Mozambique’s government has failed to disclose the true level of its foreign debts has hit sentiment towards the country, which had been seen as an African outperformer. But while... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
