Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy plunges into broad-based recession The contraction of Nigerian GDP in Q2 was driven by a sharp fall in oil output, but the data shows that other sectors of the economy are also suffering. Economy policy has made a bad situation worse. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Political risk spook investors Political risk has roiled the markets in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya over the past month. Tensions within South Africa’s cabinet, which pose a risk to the country’s already fragile economy... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Japan’s role will remain limited This week’s high-profile Japan-Africa summit will not change the fact that Tokyo remains a relatively minor player in Africa. In some areas, however, Japan will continue to play a significant role. 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales data point to Q2 rebound The statement accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today, at which the policy rate was left on hold at 0.90%, gave no sign that monetary easing is on the Council’s agenda. But we think... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia faces a painful period of post-election austerity Zambia’s disputed election has raised the risk of a period of political uncertainty, but with the vote out of the way, we think that it’s now likely that the government will agree to a long-delayed... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Latest data suggests economy dodged recession June’s manufacturing and mining figures support our view that the South African economy expanded by about 1.5% q/q (saar) in Q2, thus avoiding a technical recession. We still expect that the economy... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Inflation headed down as economic imbalances unwind The sharp fall in Ghanaian inflation supports our view that the worst is over for Ghana’s economy. Thegradual reduction of economic imbalances will help inflation moderate over the coming months. 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Gradual recovery after a painful adjustment Economic growth in Angola is grinding to a halt as the economy adjusts to lower oil prices. Growth will recover in 2017 and 2018, but more gradually than most expect. 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: Debt worries are overblown The revelation that Mozambique’s government has failed to disclose the true level of its foreign debts has hit sentiment towards the country, which had been seen as an African outperformer. But while... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Local polls deliver blow to ANC Yesterday’s local elections suggest that South African elections may be becoming more competitive. Foreign investors will probably welcome the fact that reduced support for the ruling ANC has helped... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda’s economy set for slowdown next year After years of regional outperformance, we expect that Uganda’s economy will slow more sharply than most expect in 2017. Even so, the external vulnerabilities that have built up during the past few... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Naira finally breaking free The Central Bank of Nigeria has loosened its grip on the naira in recent days, causing us to review our forecast. Elsewhere, South Africa’s equities and currency have outperformed. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN hikes rates despite threat to economic recovery The Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest rate hike is a belated attempt to regain control over the country’s weakening currency. We expect that the bank will tighten by at least another 200bps later this... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold, cuts still in the cards The Central Bank of Kenya decided to hold its key rate at 10.50% today, but we expect that the bank will cut rates later this year as inflation remains within target and Kenya’s external... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB delays again, but further hike still likely The weakness of South Africa’s economy prompted the MPC to hold off hiking interest rates today, but we still think there is room for additional monetary tightening later in the year. For now, we... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: currency reforms fall short of high hopes Nigeria’s new exchange rate policy falls far short of the authorities’ bold promises and we think the currency will have to fall further over the coming 12 months or so. 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
