Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB delays again, but further hike still likely The weakness of South Africa’s economy prompted the MPC to hold off hiking interest rates today, but we still think there is room for additional monetary tightening later in the year. For now, we... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: currency reforms fall short of high hopes Nigeria’s new exchange rate policy falls far short of the authorities’ bold promises and we think the currency will have to fall further over the coming 12 months or so. 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: current account to remain in deficit, rand under pressure A string of positive trade figures released over the past few months has raised hopes that South Africa’s balance of payments position might finally improve. In this Watch, however, we explain why the... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rise in inflation has further to go Despite the sharp rise in Nigerian inflation last month, we think it will still be some time before the headline rate peaks. This will force the central bank to tighten monetary policy even in the... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy probably dodged recession in Q2 Activity data for May suggest that South Africa’s economy has improved after contracting in Q1. We expect that the economy returned to growth in Q2, narrowly missing a technical recession. 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Naira float, Brexit rattle local markets The key decision affecting African markets this month was Nigeria’s long-awaited currency reforms, which sent the naira tumbling. The effect of Britain’s vote to leave the EU was relatively limited... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: recession avoidable, stagnation may not be The surprisingly bad fall in South African GDP in Q1 has raised fears that the economy could enter recession in Q2. We’ll know more in the next few weeks as May’s activity figures are published, but... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Key sectors improve at start of Q2 South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Sharp contraction very worrying sign South Africa’s ailing economy is clearly heading in the wrong direction. Today’s very disappointing Q1 GDP figure will add to pressure on the country’s credit rating. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: What to look for when CBN clarifies naira policy The long delay in explaining its new FX policy is another blow to the credibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria. In this note, we examine three key questions raised by the current FX policy... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Trade surplus positive news ahead of ratings review Today’s trade figures will provide some support for the South African rand. But the currency still faces significant headwinds given political uncertainty and the looming risk of a government credit... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira ‘reforms’ take centre stage Hints of a devaluation have led to confusion over the direction of Nigerian FX policy. Political uncertainty and fears of a ratings downgrade left South African rand as the worst performing EM... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Analysing President Buhari’s first year The fall in global oil prices made an economic slowdown in Nigeria inevitable. But the country’s current crisis is largely self-inflicted. Government policy has made a bad situation much worse. 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN finally admits need for flexibility The Central Bank of Nigeria finally admitted at its MPC meeting today that its inflexible “strong naira” policy has failed. The move towards a more flexible exchange rate system is a positive step. We... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Surprise rate cut sign of reduced inflation risk The Central Bank of Kenya’s 100bp rate cut (from 11.50% to 10.50%) signals that the Bank believes that inflation is well-anchored. The wide current account deficit will limit the scope for further... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A pause in the tightening cycle Today’s decision to hold rates at 7.00% is only a pause in the SARB’s tightening cycle; we still expect at least two rate hikes later this year. The MPC statement supported our very downbeat view of... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read