Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Capital inflow figures cause for muted optimism The rise of capital inflows into Nigeria in Q3 suggests that the worst of the problems in the country’s balance of payments are over. But significant strains remain. 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Failed debt plan another blow to President Buhari The Nigerian senate’s decision to block the president’s borrowing plans may preclude an infrastructure-focused stimulus plan. The bill’s failure highlights the importance of boosting domestic non-oil... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: Debt revelations push up bond yields News that Mozambique is seeking to restructure its debts sent its US$ bond yields soaring. South African markets shrugged off another attempt to depose the respected finance minister. 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Fiscal goals still too ambitious Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s budget plans rely on an economic acceleration that we believe is unlikely to materialise. If growth stays weak, South Africa will over-shoot its deficit and debt... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: What to make of the latest debt revelations It seems likely that Mozambique will eventually reach a debt restructuring deal with its creditors. But the revelation of yet more hidden debt (or another currency fall) could result in a messier... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s banks look increasingly frail Concerns about the health of Nigerian banks have risen over the past month. Indeed, as we explain in this Watch, it now looks increasingly likely that parts of the financial sector will require... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy falters in Q3 August output data suggests that South Africa’s economy did not sustain the rapid growth posted in Q2 into Q3. We expect that growth will be very weak over the remainder of 2016 and into 2017. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Political crisis rocks African growth star The government’s decision to establish a state of emergency could worsen Ethiopia’s rolling political crisis. The deteriorating situation risks knocking the country off its current growth trajectory. 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira crashes on parallel market The widening gap between Nigerian’s official and parallel exchange rates highlights the CBN’s continuing influence over the official FX market. We expect that the official rate will be devalued by... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Q2 rebound not a sign of things to come After contracting sharply in Q1, South Africa’s economy has bounced back faster than many – including ourselves – had suspected. Growth will probably pick up a bit next year, but we suspect that South... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: MPC Statement hints tightening cycle complete Today’s statement from the South African Monetary Policy Committee suggests that rates in the country are no longer likely to be hiked later this year. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN ignores government, maintains tight policy The MPC’s decision to hold rates at 14.00%, thus rebuffing government calls for looser interest rates is an encouraging sign of the bank’s independence. We expect that rates will have to rise later... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Early signs point to deepening contraction in Q3 Activity data for July and August suggest that the economic situation in Nigeria deteriorated going into the third quarter. The economy will probably continue to contract over the duration of 2016. 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African economy losing steam in Q3 Output figures for July suggest that South Africa’s economy weakened a bit at the beginning of Q3. This supports our view that strong growth in Q2 was a brief rebound, not the beginning of a lasting... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Eurobond provides boost to confidence in fragile economy The successful launch of Ghana’s fifth Eurobond is a sign of the markets’ growing confidence in the country. While the economy remains fragile, we expect that the worst is now behind us. 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output falters at start of Q3 The first Q3 South African output data support our view that the rapid growth reported in Q2 is unlikely to be sustained. The economy may post positive growth in 2016 as a whole, but only marginally. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
