Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stagnated in Q4 December’s retail sales figures were weaker than expected, but tepid growth in the sector was still probably enough to prevent the South African economy from contracting in Q4. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria over the worst, but recovery will be slow Nigeria’s successful Eurobond issue late last week provided another sign that the economy is over the worst of the recent downturn. Hopes for a quick recovery, however, are likely to be disappointed. 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African consumer spending set to remain weak The jump in South African retail sales in November has raised hopes in some quarters that consumer spending could be on the brink of a recovery. However, as we explain in this Watch, there are strong... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB sounds inflation warning The hawkish statement by the South African MPC today is likely to focus attention in the markets on the possibility of rate hikes over the coming months. However, while inflation will remain well... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Little reaction to Mozambique’s missed bond payment Mozambique’s missed bond payment this week grabbed the headlines, but the market reaction was muted. Meanwhile, rising commodity prices have supported strong gains in South Africa’s currency and... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Inflation to end 2017 lower than it started Higher fuel prices will keep South Africa’s headline inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s target range over the first quarter of this year, but slowing food inflation will bring it back within... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: retail spending a bright spot, but economy weak South Africa’s surprisingly strong retail sales figures for November provided a rare piece of good news, but the economy remains extremely weak. And there’s still a significant chance that GDP... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: Political turbulence won’t knock economy off course Last week’s abortive army mutiny has focused attention on the political fragility of Côte d’Ivoire, which suffered a series of political and economic crises between 1993 and 2011. But we expect that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Manufacturing sector shows signs of life The rebound in South African manufacturing output in November is encouraging. But we expect that this was probably a blip rather than the beginning of a lasting acceleration. Figures released today by... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira fix will prove unsustainable in 2017 Nigerian policymakers seem committed to the FX policies that have strangled their country’s economy. The situation is, however, unsustainable. We expect that the currency will be devalued again in... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: political success in an economy on the cusp of recovery Ghana’s recent election is, first and foremost, a ringing political success. On the economic front, we doubt that the election will trigger a sharp change in policy. But given that Ghana’s economy was... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Ambitious budget unlikely to be realised President Muhammadu Buhari’s latest budget proposal is overly ambitious; we expect that both spending and revenue will disappoint. While Mr. Buhari presented his spending plan as way of lifting the... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More and more red lights flashing October output data suggest that, after a very weak Q3, South Africa’s economy may have contracted outright at the start of Q4. Figures released today show that retail sales fell by 0.2% y/y in... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy headed for a brutal end to the year October’s mining and manufacturing data were both worse than even the most pessimistic analysts had expected. This suggests that, after a very weak Q3, the economy may have slowed even further in Q4. 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Trump effect limited, but Zuma rocks the rand The effect of the US election result on African currency and equity markets seems to have been fleeting. In South Africa, though, the rand has closely tracked the possibility that Jacob Zuma could be... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Policy loosening will proceed gradually The Central Bank of Kenya has paused its loosening cycle for now, but further cuts are likely in 2017. We expect that the bank’s key policy rate will end 2017 at 9.00%. 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
