Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB shifting towards a cut Today’s statement by the governor of the SARB suggests that policymakers will look through the current political crisis. Indeed, the tone of the statement – and the fact that one member voted for a... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A guide to the latest Zuma-Gordhan struggle In this Update, we provide several scenarios outlining how the political drama sparked by rumours that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will be sacked could develop, and what it means for markets. 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers playing catch-up after de facto devaluation Recent reforms to Nigeria’s FX regime have further complicated an already convoluted system, which includes a variety of exchange rates. In this Watch, we provide an overview of the state of the FX... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rumours of cabinet reshuffle rock rand Were Pravin Gordhan to actually be removed, we think that the rand could fall by another 5% against the USD. Even if he receives another stay of execution, economic factors will cause the currency to... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana doubles down on rate cuts, Kenya will follow in H2 The Bank of Ghana’s sharp rate cut suggests that policy loosening will be more aggressive than we’d previously thought. We’ve revised down our end of year rate forecast from 20.00% to 18.00%. The... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC hints at shift to more orthodox policymaking Today’s MPC statement suggested that policymakers are – at the very least – considering a shift towards tightening monetary conditions. The communication was, as ever, a bit unclear. We do not expect... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales stumble The fall in retail sales in January is disappointing given the improving picture painted by yesterday’s mining and manufacturing figures. Even so, we expect that growth will pick up later in the year... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output figures suggest growth picking up The latest output figures all support our view that the worst of South Africa’s economic slump is now behind us. We expect that economic growth will pick up faster than most expect in 2017. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Agriculture to drive growth in key economies The drought which hit a large part of Africa in 2015 and 2016 had a sizeable impact on economies in the South and East of the continent. Improving conditions will boost GDP growth in South Africa and... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa grants crisis: Edging towards the cliff edge The looming shutdown of South Africa’s social grant system could temporarily cut consumption by about 0.4%-pts of GDP per month. Policymakers will probably be able to fudge a last-minute deal to keep... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Talking the talk Nigeria’s Economic Growth & Recovery Plan (which was released this afternoon) provides a refreshingly honest analysis of the country’s economic problems & outlines a variety of sensible reforms. We’re... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy contracts, but worst now behind us Figures released today confirmed that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q4. But the underlying figures support our view that growth will pick up faster than most expect in 2017 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Grim end to the year, but worst now behind us Nigeria’s economy contracted by just 1.3% in Q4 2016, confirming our view that the slump bottomed out in Q3. Growth will pick up in 2017, and may even be a bit stronger than most expect. he National... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: New FX rate, no sign of full devaluation yet The introduction of another official FX rate in Nigeria is not (as many seem to suspect) the prelude to abolishing FX controls. Over the longer term, however, we still expect that a weakening of the... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s fiscal squeeze continues South Africa’s budget for the 2017/18 fiscal year, which envisages a fiscal squeeze of around 0.5% of GDP, looks a bit more plausible than previous budget projections. But it now seems that domestic... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: New GDP figures raise fresh debt worries Revised official GDP figures show that Angola’s economic slump is even worse than we’d thought. The revisions add to our concerns about the sustainability of the country’s large debt burden. Angola’s... 16th February 2017 · 2 mins read
