Africa Economics Update Nigeria & Angola: Light at the end of the tunnel After a year of contraction, the economies of Nigeria and Angola are finally recovering. Growth will stay weak by recent standards, but will probably outpace overly-bearish consensus expectations. 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets weather another storm The relative resilience of South African financial markets in the face of the latest political turbulence has prompted us to revise our end of year rand forecast from R15/US$ to $14/US$. Markets... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: A key African growth star in 2017 Ghana’s new government inherited an economy that was already turning the corner. After years of underperformance, growth in Ghana will accelerate sharply in 2017. 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Quantifying the economic costs of political tensions Fears that last month’s cabinet reshuffle will knock South Africa’s economy off course have dominated the headlines. But it will be some time before we have enough information to fully quantify the... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stumbles Activity data suggests that South Africa’s economy had a weak start to the year. Even so, we expect that growth will gain traction later this year, and that the economy will weather the recent... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. African fiscal policy: What would be the first sign of a shift? South Africa’s cabinet reshuffle probably won’t have a significant effect on fiscal policy in 2017/2018. In this Update, we highlight what to watch for as the new finance minister settles into his... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: How could Zuma go? Mounting opposition to President Jacob Zuma has sparked speculation that he could be forced from office. In this Update, we examine the mechanics of removing a South African president. 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Balance sheet stronger than many assume S&P’s decision to cut South Africa’s credit rating to “junk” has focused attention on the country’s current account and budget deficits. But South Africa’s balance sheet is actually in better shape... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Cabinet reshuffle rocks markets Yesterday’s cabinet reshuffle has hit market sentiment towards South Africa. While the move will have an immediate political impact, the negative economic effects may be less significant than some... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB shifting towards a cut Today’s statement by the governor of the SARB suggests that policymakers will look through the current political crisis. Indeed, the tone of the statement – and the fact that one member voted for a... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A guide to the latest Zuma-Gordhan struggle In this Update, we provide several scenarios outlining how the political drama sparked by rumours that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will be sacked could develop, and what it means for markets. 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers playing catch-up after de facto devaluation Recent reforms to Nigeria’s FX regime have further complicated an already convoluted system, which includes a variety of exchange rates. In this Watch, we provide an overview of the state of the FX... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rumours of cabinet reshuffle rock rand Were Pravin Gordhan to actually be removed, we think that the rand could fall by another 5% against the USD. Even if he receives another stay of execution, economic factors will cause the currency to... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana doubles down on rate cuts, Kenya will follow in H2 The Bank of Ghana’s sharp rate cut suggests that policy loosening will be more aggressive than we’d previously thought. We’ve revised down our end of year rate forecast from 20.00% to 18.00%. The... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC hints at shift to more orthodox policymaking Today’s MPC statement suggested that policymakers are – at the very least – considering a shift towards tightening monetary conditions. The communication was, as ever, a bit unclear. We do not expect... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales stumble The fall in retail sales in January is disappointing given the improving picture painted by yesterday’s mining and manufacturing figures. Even so, we expect that growth will pick up later in the year... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
