Africa Economics Update Kenya: Not out of the woods yet Most commentators hailed the Kenyan Supreme Court’s decision to annul the result of last month’s presidential election as a key win for the country’s democracy. This is, as yet, premature. The real... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Q2 GDP: South Africa rebounds, Nigeria limps out of recession Africa’s two largest economies returned to growth in Q2. But while South African growth rebounded, things in Nigeria remained very weak, causing us to downgrade our 2017 growth forecast to 1.2%. 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria & South Africa: Key economies bounced back in Q2 GDP figures due out Tuesday will probably show that the Nigerian & South African economies returned to growth in Q2. Indeed, we think that both countries will perform better than most expect this year... 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets continue to pick up August was another strong month for African markets as key equity indices gained. Fears that politics would knock markets off course proved ill-founded. 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: New president, same problems Angola’s new president inherits an economy that will perform worse than most expect in 2017. High levels of FX debt and shaky government finances raise the significant risk of a painful debt crisis. 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: New survey quantifies cost of corruption A new survey of corruption in Nigeria’s public service underlines the economic costs of its onerous FX and customs regime. The publication of the commendable frank survey is, in itself, a very... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales point to stronger Q2 South African retail sales figures released earlier today support our view that the country’s economy returned to growth in Q2. We expect that growth will surprise to the upside over 2017 as a whole. 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria really moving to a unified exchange rate? The Nigerian authorities’ decision to allow commercial banks to quote a floating exchange rate, rather than the less-frequently used official rate has been interpreted by some as a move towards a... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output data point to Q2 recovery South Africa’s mining and manufacturing sectors both contributed positively to headline growth last quarter. If we’re right that retail sales picked up, then GDP rebounded faster than most expect in... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Disputed result raises risk to economy Claims of tampering in yesterday’s Kenyan election have increased fears of a violent dispute. A crisis may still be avoided, but the risk of a deadly (and economically damaging) dispute is increasing. 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Election poses key risk to already slowing economy The risk of violence following next week’s election is rising. A repeat of the 2007-08 crisis would cut about 3.0%-pts off GDP growth in Q3; the total cost would depend on the length of the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A strong month for local markets Most African currencies and equity markets gained a bit of ground in July. Mozambique – where debt worries deepened – was a rare exception. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: OPEC ‘cap’ will have little economic effect Nigeria’s agreement with OPEC to cap oil production is unlikely to have much impact on the economy; output was never likely to rise significantly above this level in any case. The key point is that... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s central bank pauses before launching easing cycle Nigeria’s central bank kept its key interest rate on hold at 14.00% today, but the governor’s speech made it clear that policy loosening is on the agenda. We expect 200bp of cuts by the end of this... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Beginning of a gradual loosening cycle The SARB’s easing cycle will be gradual and data-dependent, but the key policy rate will fall to 6.00% by the end of 2018. Looser policy supports our non-consensus view that growth will pick up this... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy bounced back in Q2 The latest South African activity data suggests that, as we had expected, growth rebounded in Q2. Slowing inflation supports our view that the SARB will cut its key policy rate on Thursday. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
