Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria really moving to a unified exchange rate? The Nigerian authorities’ decision to allow commercial banks to quote a floating exchange rate, rather than the less-frequently used official rate has been interpreted by some as a move towards a... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output data point to Q2 recovery South Africa’s mining and manufacturing sectors both contributed positively to headline growth last quarter. If we’re right that retail sales picked up, then GDP rebounded faster than most expect in... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Disputed result raises risk to economy Claims of tampering in yesterday’s Kenyan election have increased fears of a violent dispute. A crisis may still be avoided, but the risk of a deadly (and economically damaging) dispute is increasing. 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Election poses key risk to already slowing economy The risk of violence following next week’s election is rising. A repeat of the 2007-08 crisis would cut about 3.0%-pts off GDP growth in Q3; the total cost would depend on the length of the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A strong month for local markets Most African currencies and equity markets gained a bit of ground in July. Mozambique – where debt worries deepened – was a rare exception. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: OPEC ‘cap’ will have little economic effect Nigeria’s agreement with OPEC to cap oil production is unlikely to have much impact on the economy; output was never likely to rise significantly above this level in any case. The key point is that... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s central bank pauses before launching easing cycle Nigeria’s central bank kept its key interest rate on hold at 14.00% today, but the governor’s speech made it clear that policy loosening is on the agenda. We expect 200bp of cuts by the end of this... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Beginning of a gradual loosening cycle The SARB’s easing cycle will be gradual and data-dependent, but the key policy rate will fall to 6.00% by the end of 2018. Looser policy supports our non-consensus view that growth will pick up this... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy bounced back in Q2 The latest South African activity data suggests that, as we had expected, growth rebounded in Q2. Slowing inflation supports our view that the SARB will cut its key policy rate on Thursday. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Monetary policy easing cycle is getting into gear Policymakers across Africa are set to loosen monetary policy sooner and more dramatically than most think. We expect cuts in South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, & elsewhere over the coming months. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold, next move will be a cut The CBK’s decision to keep its key rate on hold signals its willingness to look through the current period of above-target inflation. With inflation having now peaked, we expect that the next move... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Informal economies pose statistical challenges A new IMF paper highlights the large role the informal sector plays in African economies. It casts further doubt on official growth figures, and suggests that debt-to-GDP figures are painting a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Institutional worries: Looking beyond South Africa Increased political criticism of the South African Reserve Bank has focused attention on threats to the country’s key economic institutions. But, as we’ve written before, we think that most of these... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: ANC divided, but moderates fight back The ANC’s policy conference highlighted divisions within the party, and suggested a significant pushback against its recent leftist turn. While the president’s more populist faction is weakened, a... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Consumer spending set to pick up in Q2 The surprise contraction of consumer spending in Q1 was largely due to distortions caused by the growing popularity of “Black Friday” sales. We expect that spending picked up in Q2 as these faded. 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Economic slowdown underway The slowdown in Kenyan GDP growth in Q1 supports our view that growth in 2017 as a whole will be weaker than most expect. 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
