Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output data held up in Q3 South African output data for September were disappointing. But a stronger performance earlier in Q3 probably kept headline growth pretty robust – by local standards – over the course of last quarter. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: First thoughts on the 2018 budget draft The first draft of Nigeria’s 2018 budget suggests that the government will – yet again – set itself a spending target that is unlikely to be met. Borrowing will remain pretty limited, but the shift... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa budget, Kenya election jolt markets Political shocks hit markets in South Africa and Kenya in recent weeks. Markets elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa also performed pretty poorly over the course of October, though they remain up on the... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: A look at the balance sheet Kenya’s ongoing political crisis is drawing attention to its fragile balance sheet. Our core view is that policymakers should be able to manage the situation. Even if the currency were to weaken... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Boycotted election threatens lasting crisis The results of yesterday’s re-run presidential election in Kenya are not in doubt. But signs suggest the country’s political crisis – which has already weighed on the economy and local markets – will... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Deficit a symptom of broader malaise Today’s Medium Term Budget Policy speech confirmed that South Africa’s fiscal position has deteriorated since February. But the deficit – which is not as worrying as some seem to think – is the result... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets mispricing interest rate moves Market expectations towards South African interest rates have shifted markedly in recent weeks. While a rate cut next month is no-longer likely, we think that the markets have moved too far, and are... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth remained robust in Q3 New activity data suggest that South Africa’s long-suffering economy experienced comparatively robust growth in mid-Q3. Today’s figures support our markedly above-consensus growth forecasts. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Deficit within target, but finances weak Nigeria’s budget deficit is, perhaps surprisingly, smaller than the government had expected. But this comes at a significant economic cost. And even the country’s small shortfall may prove hard to... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Risk of violent crisis escalating Kenya’s post-election legal drama is still rapidly developing. But the latest developments all suggest that the country’s chance of avoiding a violent (and economically painful) crisis is dwindling. 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy remained strong in Q3 After bouncing back in Q2, the latest activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy remained strong in mid-Q3. This supports our above-consensus growth forecasts for the country. 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets soften in September A combination of rising political risk and falling commodity prices caused key African markets to weaken over the past month. Only a few markets bucked the trend, and they gained very little ground. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, but cuts are still on the way Nigerian policymakers kept rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement made it clear that easing is on the way. We expect that the first cut will come in Q1 2018. 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African loosening cycle put on hold The South African Reserve Bank has paused its loosening cycle, but we expect that it will cut rates at its November meeting, by which time inflation will have eased further. 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan MPC holds rates again, but will ease in 2018 The Kenyan MPC kept rates unchanged today, but we expect that they will loosen policy next year as inflation falls towards the middle of the target range. 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth slips at start of Q3 July activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy weakened at the start of Q3. But GDP still grew by about 1.5% q/q saar at the start of Q3, supporting our above-consensus growth forecasts. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
