Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy gathered pace at start of Q4 Headlines in South Africaare firmly focused on the country’s political drama, but the most recent activity data suggest that the country’s economy accelerated at the start of Q4. 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A guide to the ANC national conference Long simmering political tensions within the African National Congress (ANC) will come to the boil next week when the ruling party meets for its national conference. But while the summit has cast a... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy getting into gear Growth in South Africa’s economy remained strong in Q3, suggesting that the country’s recovery is gaining traction. This supports our view that growth will surprise to the upside in 2018. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa downgrade: More heat than light South Africa’s latest ratings downgrade wasn’t as bad as the markets had expected; the rand rallied after the country’s local currency debt was cut to junk by S&P but left as investment grade by Moody... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: downgrade largely priced in Fears that bond yields could jump sharply and that the rand could sell off if Moody’s and S&P cut South Africa’s local currency debt to junk status later today look a bit overblown. Much of the bad... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB takes further easing off the table The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) made it pretty clear at today’s MPC meeting, at which the policy rate was left unchanged at 6.75%, that any additional easing is off the cards. As a result, we... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How important is Zimbabwe’s economy? The military takeover in Zimbabwe last night has drawn attention to the escalating political crisis in the country. In this Update, we look at the economic angle and explain why the latest... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery continued in Q3 South African activity data for September were disappointing, but it looks like the economy expanded by a decent 2% q/q saar over Q3 as a whole. More timely figures for October suggest that the... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s business environment: A look behind the numbers An improved performance by several African economies – notably Nigeria – on the World Bank’s Doing Business index has resulted in some very positive headlines. But we would caution against assigning... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output data held up in Q3 South African output data for September were disappointing. But a stronger performance earlier in Q3 probably kept headline growth pretty robust – by local standards – over the course of last quarter. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: First thoughts on the 2018 budget draft The first draft of Nigeria’s 2018 budget suggests that the government will – yet again – set itself a spending target that is unlikely to be met. Borrowing will remain pretty limited, but the shift... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa budget, Kenya election jolt markets Political shocks hit markets in South Africa and Kenya in recent weeks. Markets elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa also performed pretty poorly over the course of October, though they remain up on the... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: A look at the balance sheet Kenya’s ongoing political crisis is drawing attention to its fragile balance sheet. Our core view is that policymakers should be able to manage the situation. Even if the currency were to weaken... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Boycotted election threatens lasting crisis The results of yesterday’s re-run presidential election in Kenya are not in doubt. But signs suggest the country’s political crisis – which has already weighed on the economy and local markets – will... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Deficit a symptom of broader malaise Today’s Medium Term Budget Policy speech confirmed that South Africa’s fiscal position has deteriorated since February. But the deficit – which is not as worrying as some seem to think – is the result... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets mispricing interest rate moves Market expectations towards South African interest rates have shifted markedly in recent weeks. While a rate cut next month is no-longer likely, we think that the markets have moved too far, and are... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
