Africa Economics Update South Africa: A weak start to 2018 South Africa’s seems to have economy slowed in January, but the weakness of recent figures was exaggerated by the comparison with a strong performance at the end of 2017. We think that growth will... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African Trade: The devil is in the details Political leaders from across Africa have gathered in Rwanda to sign an ambitious new trade pact. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has been billed as the first step to creating a... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Easing cycle restarts, CBK mute on lending cap Today’s rate cut will be followed by another cut later this year. The pace of further easing will depend on when the government amends or abandons its controversial cap on lending rates. 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Land reform fears are overblown Parliamentary discussions on land reform have prompted much breathless commentary. But, while the proposed changes remain unclear, a mushy compromise is more likely than a Zimbabwe-style land grab. 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Growth already gaining steam in late 2017 South African Q4 GDP figures were better than even our own above-consensus forecast. We expect that the economy will retain momentum in the coming quarters, and beat consensus expectations in 2018. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Debt worries building Kenya’s public debt load is not particularly large, but the recent run-up in debt is clearly not sustainable. Our core view is that the government will tighten policy and that the debt burden will... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: US equity correction outweighs political drama The market impact of February’s political drama in South Africa was limited; investors had already priced in Jacob Zuma’s February 14th resignation. Instead, moves in markets across Africa were mostly... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Painful budget prioritises smaller deficit South Africa’s budget suggests that President Cyril Ramaphosa is putting a renewed emphasis on narrowing the fiscal deficit. We think that the shortfall will narrow in the short term, but that the... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rebound is underway Nigeria’s economy finally exited recession in the middle of 2017, but growth remained very weak. The latest figures, however, suggest that the economy accelerated going into the start of this year... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: First thoughts on Zuma’s resignation The resignation of embattled South African President Jacob Zuma last night has provided a boost to local markets. His successor inherits an economy that is already well into a cyclical upswing. Over... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Political drama masks economic recovery Attention in South Africa is firmly focused on news that the ANC will vote President Jacob Zuma out of office on Thursday. But the political drama has distracted from a marked cyclical improvement in... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: What comes next for Jacob Zuma? Party leaders’ formal call for President Jacob Zuma to resign will further expedite his replacement by Cyril Ramaphosa. But the precise timing and nature of his removal from office remains unclear. In... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mining slumps, but manufacturing picks up South African output data for December were mixed, but we think that the economy held up well in Q4. Strong manufacturing growth probably offset the weaker performance of the mining sector. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Cape Town: Drought unlikely to derail SA economy The worsening drought in the Western Cape threatens to unleash a humanitarian crisis in Cape Town. But even an acute crisis probably wouldn’t be enough to snuff out South Africa’s economic recovery. 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Angola grabs the headlines in early 2018 Angola’s recent devaluation has not gone far enough, and we expect that the kwanza will fall further this year. Currencies elsewhere in Africa had a pretty strong start to the year. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Prepare for turbulence Since his election late last year, President João Lourenço has embarked on a surprisingly bold programme of economic reforms. In this Watch we argue that President Lourenço’s reform plans will help to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
