Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Long-delayed budget tells us little The 2018 budget finally passed by Nigerian legislators yesterday will have little effect on fiscal policy. Expenditure – particularly on capital projects – will fall far below the government’s... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Growth stalls in Q1, will pick up thereafter Today’s retail figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy faltered at the start of 2018, with GDP actually contracting in Q1. We still think that growth will return Q2 and remain strong... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stumbled in Q1 Today’s activity data suggest that growth faltered in Q1. Recent surveys, however, point to improving conditions, and we maintain our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 2.0% over 2018 as a whole. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: A closer look at public debt worries We’ve long argued that Zambia’s debt position is very fragile. Adverse commodity price moves, for instance, could quickly push it into debt distress. If recent allegations that officials have... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Weaker inflation points to rate cut Today’s inflation figures support our view that policymakers will cut their key rate in July. Meanwhile, the rebate surrounding Kenya’s lending rate cap suggests that the controversial law will be... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices: Africa’s winners and losers Commodities make up a large part of Africa’s exports but the degree of dependence and product diversification varies across the region. While the value of net exports of energy producers, including... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed month for markets, but rand suffers The rand’s recent rally seems well and truly over; it weakened against the US dollar by even more than EM peers this month. We expect that the currency will continue to fall late this year. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Public sector wage talks pose fiscal risk Labour relations in South Africa are deteriorating. Public sector wage talks are particularly fraught; a strike could cripple government services, while a big wage hike would sharply widen the budget... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth slowed in Q1 Today’s retail figures show that consumer spending was robust in Q1. The comparison with a very strong result in Q4 will depress q/q GDP growth this quarter, but we don’t think that this marks a... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: Minimum wage shows difficulty of economic reform South African policymakers are being forced to delay the introduction of a long-planned national minimum wage bill. Overall, we think that the bill is probably a positive step for the country. The... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Economy set to outperform in 2018 After a recent drought-related slowdown, Uganda’s economy will pick up over the next few years as policy becomes more supportive and oil production plans are stepped up. We think that growth will... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Growth: Beware talk of an “African” recovery Many analysts now talk of a recovery ‘in Africa’; but faster regional growth this year will be almost entirely due to accelerations in Nigeria & South Africa. Given weak economic links within Africa... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, but cuts likely later in Q2 Today’s Nigerian MPC press conference supported our view that policymakers will cut rates later this year. We think that the key rate will fall from 14.00% – at which it was left today – to 13.00% in... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. African ratings reprieve provides boost for bonds March was a mixed months for African markets. While most currencies performed well, dollar bonds sold off. Most local markets did, however, gain over Q1 as a whole. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rate cut will be a one-off Today’s 25bp interest rate cut does not signal the start of a new easing cycle. We think that policymakers were attempting to seize the opportunity for a quick cut before inflation picks up later this... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Easing cycle continues Today’s unexpectedly aggressive interest rate cut – which took the key rate to 18.00% – suggest that the current loosening cycle has further to run. We expect that the rate will fall to 16.00% by year... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
