Africa Economics Update CEMAC: Recovery will not be sustained After a painful adjustment, growth in the Central African franc zone will pick up in 2018 and 2019. The region’s longer-term outlook, however, is poor. Indeed, tensions between Cameroon and its more... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Why the SARB will look through rand falls Market fears that South African policymakers will hike interest rates in response to a weak rand are overdone. We think that the SARB’s repo rate will be held at 6.50% for the rest of this year. 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Inflation to be contained this year Inflation in Uganda will accelerate over the coming months, but remain below the highs recorded last year. Policymakers will probably leave rates on hold this year, but restart their easing cycle in... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update EAC Budgets: Kenyan fiscal policy raises economic risks Kenyan policymakers’ plan to narrow their budget deficit relies on very optimistic revenue forecasts. If these are missed, concerns about Kenya’s large and growing debt burden will increase. 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak start to Q2 Today’s mining figures confirmed that, following a disappointing Q1, South Africa’s economy weakened even more at the start of the Q2. We still think that the economy will strengthen this year. 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update West Africa: Easing cycles will continue Inflation figures released today by Nigeria, Ghana, and Angola were all weak by recent standards. We think that policymakers will continue their easing cycles in late 2018 and early 2019. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Balance sheet weaknesses ebbing After a difficult period, recent data show that Ghana’s balance sheet problems are now behind us. While problems in the banking sector have emerged, policymakers are taking the right steps to tackle... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Springtime in Addis Ababa? Reforms announced by Ethiopia’s government could upend the country’s political and economic model. This may eventually boost growth, but a delicate period of liberalisation will increase the risk of... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: ‘Ramaphoria’ stalls in Q1 South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q1, underlining the scale of the task facing President Ramaphosa. Growth will pick up later this year, but will remain weak by historical standards. 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Only a mild rebound in 2018 Despite higher oil prices, Angola’s economy will grow by just 1.5% this year, less than consensus expectations. Conditions will remain weak in 2019, though reforms could provide a boost further out. 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update E. African inflation: Still on track for rate cuts in 2018 Inflation in Kenya and Uganda will pick up over the coming months. The shift will be mostly due to base effects, and with inflation within target, policymakers in both countries will cut rates by 50bp... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: A weak month for local markets Most African currencies weakened against the US dollar this month, but avoided the sharp falls seen elsewhere in the EM world. Zambian markets, however, struggled due to fears of hidden debts. 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Pro-business reform in Africa: Angola stands out Hopes that President Cyril Ramaphosa will reform South Africa’s economy have grabbed the headlines. But reforms are also underway elsewhere; recent pro-business moves in Angola show the most potential... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Hawkish tone, but rates on hold for now South African policymakers, who left their key rate at 6.50% today, struck a hawkish tone. Though inflation will pick up this year, a hike is unlikely. We think the next move will be a small cut in... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers hold off, will cut later this year A surprisingly hawkish MPC statement suggest that Nigerian policymakers (who held their key rate at 14.00% today) will keep rates on hold for most of this year. But they will still probably cut rates... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Agriculture in Africa: An underappreciated opportunity Most African economies remain heavily-dependent on the agricultural sector. Indeed, weather-related disruptions often play a key role in determining swings in headline economic growth. The sector is... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
